We prepare because we see how the world around us is, and we see that there are some very real dangers in it. However, there are some in our community who need to throttle back on “the collapse is coming” a bit. I may upset some of you but I hope you will read the entire article before you decide.
I believe that the likelihood of a “Mad Max” TEOTWAWKI type collapse is highly unlikely. I do believe that events like an EMP attack, pandemic and other wide scale events are possible, so it is worthwhile to consider those possibilities and watch for signs of them.
I explained in Disaster Probability that the events we are most likely to see are not widespread and will really only affect us as individuals, our families and maybe our neighborhood. The events that are far more widespread and are much more destructive are far less probable.
I’ve also come to believe that it is unlikely because world history has shown this to be the case. For example, there was hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic after WWII, and in Zimbabwe starting in 2008. These two events are probably the most closely related events to a “collapse” as most prepper’s view it.
Argentina had a financial collapse, as did Iceland and many European countries since 2008. While these all had financial upheaval, civil unrest and rioting for a short time, I don’t know that any resemble the collapse as many prepper’s expect it.
We’ve seen several regional outbreaks of SARS and other illnesses, but the last true pandemic we saw was the Spanish Flu of 1918.
If we look at the last 100 years of American history, we see the great depression as the biggest “collapse” style event. But there have been hundreds of smaller events, mostly weather-related. Even if we look at the worst of these; Hurricane Katrina, this was a horrible event for those in the area, but had little direct impact on the rest of the country. In the grand scheme of things, it was fairly short lived, and aid, while slow to arrive, still came. My point is that even the worst weather related event we have had wasn’t a “collapse” or “TEOTWAWKI” event, but if you live in an area where hurricanes are a threat, they are the exact kind of event you should be preparing for.
Yes, there is a small chance of these collapse types of events happening, but there are several much smaller SHTF events that actually happen every day, including death in the family, job loss, tornados, hurricanes, blizzards, medical emergencies, home invasions, car accidents, severe drought and wildfires, just to name a few. If we take a more general approach to preparedness and don’t measure things by how useful they would be in one event, our overall preparedness is greater.
I see people comment on things on facebook and blog comments to Prepared Christian and other sites that I just don’t understand. Things like “I won’t start a garden because when the collapse comes people will come take my food,” or “I won’t own a storage locker because when the collapse comes the government will take it.” I fully believe that a violent attack could be perpetrated against me. But this doesn’t cause me to stay in the house. I practice Situational Awareness every time I leave the house and frequently carry a firearm or other type of self-defense implement.
If you live your life avoiding certain things because one day an event with a low chance of happening could happen, you’ve already been affected by it. Gardening offers huge benefits; eating fresh fruits and veggies, reduction of stress, sharing excess fruit and veggies with neighbors and loved ones, which can lead to prepper conversations and possibly to their prepping. If your reason not to garden is because it’ll make you a target when TEOTWAWKI comes, first; breathing in TEOTWAWKI will make you a target, and second; you give up all of the benefits on the remote chance that the worst case might happen.
I received a few different negative emails on the article I did on storage lockers, most saying that my idea was foolish because in a collapse people would break in or the government would seize them. Yes, if TEOTWAWKI happens, people might break in and steal things and the government might lay claim to it, but if you read the executive orders, the government can lay claim to many, MANY things in a collapse situation. In a total collapse, you can probably kiss your storage unit goodbye, but that doesn’t make it a stupid or invalid plan for the family that has a little extra money and that lives below the flood plain, or the family who lives in tornado alley, or the family that lives in an area where wildfires are a yearly threat, who wants to make sure they have some items set aside in case they are forced to bug out with nothing.
If I need a used car, I judge it by its gas mileage, safety rating and whether it’s been in an accident, not by how it may preform if we get hit by an EMP.
Again, there is a chance that we could see the worst case scenario collapse, but you do yourself a disservice if you measure the quality of an item or a plan based on the small chance that it occurs and what people will do if the worst does happen.
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