There are two types of terrorist attacks that are very effective and very difficult to stop. The first is the only successful terrorist attack on American soil since 9-11; the lone wolf attack. The second type; the swarm attack. We have not yet seen a swarm attack in America but it was used in India with great effect.
 
 
Lone Wolf

There have been some elaborate attempts, such as the infamous “Underwear Bomber” and the ”Times Square Bomber” that have failed.

As I mentioned, it is my opinion the only terrorist attacks that have been successful in America since 9-11-01 have been lone wolf attacks. The reason these attacks are successful is that the terrorist can act alone with little to no support network. A lone wolf attack involves a firearm and as much ammo as they cam carry, possibly some crude explosives and a location to begin the attack, no synchronized coordination, no elaborate plan, just an evil and hate-filled heart, shooting anyone and everyone in range.
 
 
Is The Threat Real?

Fox News wrote an article called “Alleged Texas Jihad Plot Underscores Threat of Lone Wolf Terrorists Inside U.S”, that covers the Saudi National who planned to bomb a series of targets. He wasn’t discovered by police or the FBI but by a chemical supplier who was suspicious about the amount of a certain chemical he ordered and they tipped off the authorities. The article goes on to say:

“The lone wolf scenario is seen by many counterterrorism officials as one of the most concerning. The larger the plot, the more individuals who are involved, the more likely it is to find a lead and unravel the operation.

If a suspect is not e-mailing or phoning anyone to develop the plot, it can be virtually impossible to thwart. In the Texas case, it is alleged that the suspect slipped up as he was gathering the remaining components to make IEDs”

An article from ABC News explains that American-born al Qaeda spokesman Adam Gadahn has said in the newest al Qaeda video, that American Muslims Should Buy Guns, Start Shooting People.

“Do Not Rely on Others, Take the Task Upon Yourself”, produced by al Qaeda’s media arm, as Sahab, the tape mixes Gadahn’s new message with clips from old videos of Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri and other al Qaeda leaders praising one-man attacks. They call on jihadis in the West to carry out lone wolf operations.”

I mentioned that there have been successful lone wolf attacks. The shooting at an Arkansas recruiting center, where one soldier was murdered and another wounded is one successful attack. The attack at Fort Hood is another successful attack. Twelve people were murdered and thirty-one wounded. These types of attacks are not just limited to jihadis. The shooting in Arizona by Jared Loughner proves this.
 
 
Swarm Attacks

A swarm attack consists of multiple small groups of just a few men attacking several targets at once. This type of attack was used in Mumbai, India in November of 2008. Five two-man teams were able to murder 179 people over the course of two days.

The Coming Swarm is an article by The New York Times that gives a very good explanation of what a swarm is and how this tactic has been used around the world. It hints that America should get ready for the coming swarm.

“While the specifics of the federal counterterrorism strategy are classified, what is in the public record indicates that the plan contemplates having to deal with as many as three sites being simultaneously hit and using “overwhelming force” against the terrorists, which probably means mustering as many as 3,000 ground troops to the site. If that’s an accurate picture, it doesn’t bode well. We would most likely have far too few such elite units for dealing with a large number of small terrorist teams carrying out simultaneous attacks across a region or even a single city.

Nightmare possibilities include synchronized assaults on several shopping malls, high-rise office buildings or other places that have lots of people and relatively few exits. Another option would be to set loose half a dozen two-man sniper teams in some metropolitan area — you only have to recall the havoc caused by the Washington sniper in 2002 to imagine how huge a panic a slightly larger version of that form of terrorism would cause.”
 
 
Is The Threat Real?

As I mentioned, terrorists like grand events and a swarm attack on multiple targets either in one city or multiple cities is defiantly grand. I also mentioned that the reason lone wolf attacks are so effective is that there aren’t many people involved in carrying the attack out and there isn’t a large support network for those who carry it out. I would say we are more likely to see more lone wolf attacks but a swarm attack is still a possibility. I can also see a lone wolf attack encouraging more lone wolf attacks and it turning into an unorganized swarm attack.
 
 
What can we do?

The things that you can do are the same in both of these, mainly because you likely won’t know if it was a swarm or lone wolf until afterward. That being said, what can you do? The most important thing you can do is practice situational awareness. When you are in public, be aware of what is going on around you. You should also be aware of the nearest exit.
 
 
Cover and Concealment

Cover and concealment are two important things to keep in mind. Concealment is having something big enough to hide behind and cover is something that you can hide behind that will stop bullets. As an example, the walls of most homes are built with sheetrock and studs. While you can hide behind this wall, it’s not going to stop a bullet. If you have a fireplace made of bricks or stones, this is sufficient cover to stop a bullet.
 
 
Fight or Flight

I think everyone knows about the fight or flight instinct. I don’t think there is anything wrong with either response. I have mentioned this article about Sheep, Wolves and Sheepdogs. The article is worth reading. It explains that most people are sheep and do not have the capacity for violence, except under extreme duress. Wolves have a capacity for violence and prey on the sheep. Sheepdogs also have a capacity for violence, but love and protect the sheep, keeping them safe from the wolves.

If you are a sheep, find cover if possible but concealment at the least, get to the nearest exit and call 911. If you are a sheepdog, you have a judgment call to make. You don’t have to use violence just because you have the capacity for it. However, if you decide to show the wolf your fangs (and have your CCW), keep in mind that you don’t know how many shooters there are. Find some cover and make a plan. Also keep in mind that the police are on the way. They have no real way to know that you’re on their side and not one of the wolves.

I have thought about what I might do in this situation. I have to say that the options are not great. A call to 911 can tell them that you have your CCW and are engaging the threat. Be sure they know what you’re wearing. Another option is to have someone else call police and let them know, or inform them as they come in.

There is also a company that has developed a Don’t Shoot Me Sash. I like this idea and have thought of purchasing one but there is nothing keeping the wolves from wearing one. If you see police, drop your gun; do NOT try to explain that you’re on their side.

The last thing I want to mention is something I brought up in the article about Rising church crime. I have held the belief since shortly after 9-11 that terrorists saw how churches swelled after 9-11. Should there be another attack, churches would be a second attack. American-born al Qaeda spokesperson told jihadis living in America:

“to do major damage to the enemies of Islam, waging war on their religion, sacred places, and things, and brethren,” says Gadahn. “This is a golden opportunity and a blessing.”

Keep alert at worship; they see it as a potential target.

 
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Beslan – Terrorist attack at a Beslan School, North Ossetia-Alania (Russia): Could this happen in America (or anywhere else again)?

On September 1, 2004, Chechen Islamic terrorists stormed a school taking over 1,100 people hostage for three days. The terrorists were brutal, killing men and boys old enough to resist their attempts. Hostages were forced to stay in a sweltering hot auditorium with little to no food or water. Russian forces eventually stormed the school. In the end there were over 385 dead, including 31 dead terrorists. Wikipedia has a very detailed write up called Beslan school hostage crisis.

Is this a real threat?

I’ll break this down into two questions. First, could they? Second, will they? The answer to “could they?” is an absolute yes and quite easily at most schools. “Will they?” is a much harder question to answer. Through this article I build the case that this is something that terrorists have researched, drilled and done in Beslan. Granted much of the information is a few years old, I believe it is still relevant.

There are security experts who believe terrorists are preparing to do the same thing in America. Paul Marshall from The National Review Online states that:

“This is not the only time that al Qaeda has announced a target of four million. In June 2002, its spokesman, Suleiman Abu Gheith, published an article on the alneda website that claimed: “We have the right to kill four million Americans — 2 million of them children — and to exile twice as many and wound and cripple hundreds of thousands.”

I don’t want to go down the rabbit hole too far, but there is a segment of Islam that believes they can bring about the return of the Mahdi, the 12th Imam. They believe that if they spread chaos that the Hidden Imam will emerge. The return of The Hidden Imam will “bring justice and peace to the world by establishing Islam throughout the world.”

Do you remember the backlash or fear of backlash after 9-11? The late night sitcoms joked about Arabs wearing United States Flag themes clothes to keep from getting a beat down. If they were to attack even a couple of schools, I would imagine that there would be much more backlash then after 9-11.

When Glenn Beck was still at CNN he did a series of shows about “The Perfect Day”. He goes over what the terrorists are planning to do in America and did do at Beslan. I wasn’t able to find the full-length videos however Youtube has several clips from the series that are worth watching.  Here is the link to the Perfect Day Series.

Every key point from the entire series is covered by the National Terror Alert Response Center in the article The Terrorist Threat To Our Schools.

Much of this information is a little dated, but keep in mind that there was eight years in between the first and second bombing of the world trade centers. Out of any other attack, this one would hurt the most; it would cause more fear and anger then any other.

What Can We Do?

I think the most important thing we can do is be informed, not just about the threat, but about our children’s schools security plans; find out if they have one and what it entails if you can. They might not cover what the response will be, but you can find out from your child what they are expected to do or find out from the school what the children are supposed to do. We can talk to them about the schools security plan or we develop a security plan for our kids and talk to them about it.

Lock Down

One security practice that is fairly common is “lock-down”. A quick example of a lock-down: A lock-down announcement is made. Teachers then lock the door and the entire class is moved away from any windows or doors. Everyone keeps very silent. There is often a color-coded piece of paper slid under the door. The colors could mean everything from “we’re safe”, “we have wounded inside” to “call police”. In my opinion, these pieces of paper scream for attention from intruders. If I was Joe Dirtbag and I decided to bring a gun to school and kill some children, it doesn’t matter if I know what the color means. The fact that it is lying outside of a door tells me that either someone was in there, or still is. All it takes to find out is one good kick to the door.

Maybe I am missing something but I just don’t understand the lock-down being used in today’s world. Beslan, Columbine, Virgina Tech and so many other school shootings should be to school safety what 9-11 was to airport security. Before 9-11 you could carry a box cutter on a plane and almost everyone believed that if there was a hijacking, you just submit to the hijackers and the plane lands safely. Today you need an act of Congress to get 90-year-old woman in a wheel chair through the airport security checkpoint and people are ready to tackle anyone that stands up when the seat-belt light is still on.

Beslan, Columbine, Virgina Tech and other school shootings should show us that attackers, whether Islamic terrorists or a fellow student, people who bring a gun to school mean to get as high a body count as they can.

When we saw the episode of Glenn Beck on Beslan, my oldest stepson was in middle school. The school was built in the 1950’s and security was not a concern. My wife and I found out what the school had in place for its security policy. We then talked it over and came up with a plan for our kids, should there be a shooting of any kind at their school.

Our kids had heard about school shootings, so the topic wasn’t completely foreign. We wanted them prepared ahead of time so that they didn’t have to come up with a plan when “it’s hit the fan”, when adrenaline and fear have their minds racing. We brought it to them in a way that didn’t scare them and gave them a plan “just in case”.
 
 
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In America alone there have been nineteen terrorist attempts that have been stopped since September 11, 2001. Terrorists have stated time and time again that they will attack us here at home and our interests abroad. The question is; will they be able to? Out of the nineteen attempts some were stopped by good police work, some were successful to one degree or another and the majority failed due too the incompetence of the terrorist.

I’m going to cover three terrorist attacks that I think are possible and some advice should you find yourself near one. In this article I’ll cover the dirty bomb.
 
 
Dirty Bomb

A dirty bomb is not a conventional nuclear explosion. It uses conventional explosives (such as dynamite) to spread radioactive material. The damage and casualty rate would be much lower then a conventional nuclear attack. The goal with this type of attack is fear. Any death or injury caused by it is an added “bonus” to the terrorist. Remember how long things were shut down after 9-11 and how badly the economy suffered? If they can scare people and get them to pause long enough, it will do much more to hurt our way of life than any damage they may have caused.
 
 
Is this a real threat?

I see this as a two-part question. One; is this something that terrorists would like to do? I think the answer, without question, is yes. Terrorists like “grand” event’s, whether it be the size or multiple, well choreographed, events. A dirty bomb could be a pretty big event. The second question is; Can they pull it off? This isn’t as easy to answer. I think if they had the ability now, they would use it. However, there are more and more unfriendly and pseudo-friendly countries chasing nuclear “power”. Since a dirty bomb doesn’t require weapons grade material, any of these countries could make a fair bit of money off some of their nuclear waste.

You might remember the nuclear summit held in Washington last April; here are two quotes that I think are pretty important:

“A leading nuclear expert says it is only a matter of time before terrorists launch an attack using so-called dirty bombs.” From an ABC News article

“The White House has warned state and local governments not to expect a “significant federal response” at the scene of a terrorist nuclear attack for 24 to 72 hours after the blast, according to a planning guide.” From a USA Today article

So what do you do if caught near a dirty bomb explosion? Here is a scenario for you:

You’re at work and you hear sirens, you look outside and you see a mushroom cloud. You know that a mushroom cloud doesn’t mean a nuclear explosion; it could just be a large conventional explosion…

Before I cover the things to do after the explosion, let me cover some things that you can do before. A GHB (Get Home Bag) can be kept in your car. It is a bag stocked with enough supplies to get you home. Many people plan for walking home, in case of an EMP. I also recommend having a get home plan consisting of at least three totally different routes.

I have seen it recommended to get and stay indoors. Personally I don’t think that is the best advice in all situations. There are too many variables that could come into play; there may have been radiological, chemical or biological agents mixed in with the conventional explosion. As I mentioned above, terrorists like “grand”, so there could be more bombs. Oh and then there is the statement from the White House that local governments would be on their own for up to three days after the blast.

Now you need to make a judgment call, depending on how far away from the blast you are. If you are indoors, that might be the best place to be. (As for me, if I can see it, or hear the sirens for it, I am leaving.) In order to make a judgment call you’ll need as much information as you can get, as quickly as you can get it. Local radio and TV are good, but it’s going to take a while before they’re on scene. Police and other first responders will have the most current information. There are free police scanners on line such as this one. If you have an iPhone, there is an app called 5-0 Police Radio, this app lists 100’s of free police radio feeds. I’m sure there are similar apps for other phones.

Back to what to do after…

First, know that the most deadly part of a dirty bomb is the initial explosion.
 
 
Indoors

This is where you’ll need to make a judgment call. If you work near the explosion, you might want to take the rest of the day off. If you live near the blast, start thinking about bugging out and which route in your bug-out plan is the best. If you decide to stay indoors, close any open windows and turn off the air conditioning or heat.
 
 
Outdoors or In Your Car

In a large explosion there is a lot of dirt and debris in the air that you will risk breathing in. You can cover your mouth and nose with a cloth, or pack an N95 mask in your GHB. Outdoors is possibly the worst place to be. Seeking shelter or running for your car and heading for the best route in your get home plan might be the best idea. If you are in the car put the windows up and turn off the air conditioning or heat.
 
 
Fallout and Decontaminating

The three factors to protect from radiation are distance, time and shielding.
 
Distance

The more distance between you and the fallout particles the better. There are so many possible variables that it’s hard to say how far is far enough. I would say if you can still see the fallout coming down then you’re not far enough away.
 
Time

Fallout radiation loses intensity over time. Since we’re talking about a dirty bomb instead of a conventional nuclear bomb, the rate should be even faster as there will be less radiation. Once the fallout stops coming down I would expect government officials to begin checking the radiation levels and to begin cleaning up and rescuing people as soon as it is safe.
 
Shielding

If you have to shelter you want the heaviest, densest walls and barricades that you can find; concrete or brick are ideal. If you can’t find a building with sufficient walls then make a shelter in the innermost area, away from any windows.

If you have been outside it is important to decontaminate and remove fallout ASAP. You should remove outer clothing and put it in a bag and seal it. If possible rinse your hair and body off thoroughly with water before entering your home. This should remove any fallout particles. Also remember to decontaminate any pets that were outside.

 
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