Beslan – Terrorist attack at a Beslan School, North Ossetia-Alania (Russia): Could this happen in America (or anywhere else again)?

On September 1, 2004, Chechen Islamic terrorists stormed a school taking over 1,100 people hostage for three days. The terrorists were brutal, killing men and boys old enough to resist their attempts. Hostages were forced to stay in a sweltering hot auditorium with little to no food or water. Russian forces eventually stormed the school. In the end there were over 385 dead, including 31 dead terrorists. Wikipedia has a very detailed write up called Beslan school hostage crisis.

Is this a real threat?

I’ll break this down into two questions. First, could they? Second, will they? The answer to “could they?” is an absolute yes and quite easily at most schools. “Will they?” is a much harder question to answer. Through this article I build the case that this is something that terrorists have researched, drilled and done in Beslan. Granted much of the information is a few years old, I believe it is still relevant.

There are security experts who believe terrorists are preparing to do the same thing in America. Paul Marshall from The National Review Online states that:

“This is not the only time that al Qaeda has announced a target of four million. In June 2002, its spokesman, Suleiman Abu Gheith, published an article on the alneda website that claimed: “We have the right to kill four million Americans — 2 million of them children — and to exile twice as many and wound and cripple hundreds of thousands.”

I don’t want to go down the rabbit hole too far, but there is a segment of Islam that believes they can bring about the return of the Mahdi, the 12th Imam. They believe that if they spread chaos that the Hidden Imam will emerge. The return of The Hidden Imam will “bring justice and peace to the world by establishing Islam throughout the world.”

Do you remember the backlash or fear of backlash after 9-11? The late night sitcoms joked about Arabs wearing United States Flag themes clothes to keep from getting a beat down. If they were to attack even a couple of schools, I would imagine that there would be much more backlash then after 9-11.

When Glenn Beck was still at CNN he did a series of shows about “The Perfect Day”. He goes over what the terrorists are planning to do in America and did do at Beslan. I wasn’t able to find the full-length videos however Youtube has several clips from the series that are worth watching.  Here is the link to the Perfect Day Series.

Every key point from the entire series is covered by the National Terror Alert Response Center in the article The Terrorist Threat To Our Schools.

Much of this information is a little dated, but keep in mind that there was eight years in between the first and second bombing of the world trade centers. Out of any other attack, this one would hurt the most; it would cause more fear and anger then any other.

What Can We Do?

I think the most important thing we can do is be informed, not just about the threat, but about our children’s schools security plans; find out if they have one and what it entails if you can. They might not cover what the response will be, but you can find out from your child what they are expected to do or find out from the school what the children are supposed to do. We can talk to them about the schools security plan or we develop a security plan for our kids and talk to them about it.

Lock Down

One security practice that is fairly common is “lock-down”. A quick example of a lock-down: A lock-down announcement is made. Teachers then lock the door and the entire class is moved away from any windows or doors. Everyone keeps very silent. There is often a color-coded piece of paper slid under the door. The colors could mean everything from “we’re safe”, “we have wounded inside” to “call police”. In my opinion, these pieces of paper scream for attention from intruders. If I was Joe Dirtbag and I decided to bring a gun to school and kill some children, it doesn’t matter if I know what the color means. The fact that it is lying outside of a door tells me that either someone was in there, or still is. All it takes to find out is one good kick to the door.

Maybe I am missing something but I just don’t understand the lock-down being used in today’s world. Beslan, Columbine, Virgina Tech and so many other school shootings should be to school safety what 9-11 was to airport security. Before 9-11 you could carry a box cutter on a plane and almost everyone believed that if there was a hijacking, you just submit to the hijackers and the plane lands safely. Today you need an act of Congress to get 90-year-old woman in a wheel chair through the airport security checkpoint and people are ready to tackle anyone that stands up when the seat-belt light is still on.

Beslan, Columbine, Virgina Tech and other school shootings should show us that attackers, whether Islamic terrorists or a fellow student, people who bring a gun to school mean to get as high a body count as they can.

When we saw the episode of Glenn Beck on Beslan, my oldest stepson was in middle school. The school was built in the 1950’s and security was not a concern. My wife and I found out what the school had in place for its security policy. We then talked it over and came up with a plan for our kids, should there be a shooting of any kind at their school.

Our kids had heard about school shootings, so the topic wasn’t completely foreign. We wanted them prepared ahead of time so that they didn’t have to come up with a plan when “it’s hit the fan”, when adrenaline and fear have their minds racing. We brought it to them in a way that didn’t scare them and gave them a plan “just in case”.
 
 
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In America alone there have been nineteen terrorist attempts that have been stopped since September 11, 2001. Terrorists have stated time and time again that they will attack us here at home and our interests abroad. The question is; will they be able to? Out of the nineteen attempts some were stopped by good police work, some were successful to one degree or another and the majority failed due too the incompetence of the terrorist.

I’m going to cover three terrorist attacks that I think are possible and some advice should you find yourself near one. In this article I’ll cover the dirty bomb.
 
 
Dirty Bomb

A dirty bomb is not a conventional nuclear explosion. It uses conventional explosives (such as dynamite) to spread radioactive material. The damage and casualty rate would be much lower then a conventional nuclear attack. The goal with this type of attack is fear. Any death or injury caused by it is an added “bonus” to the terrorist. Remember how long things were shut down after 9-11 and how badly the economy suffered? If they can scare people and get them to pause long enough, it will do much more to hurt our way of life than any damage they may have caused.
 
 
Is this a real threat?

I see this as a two-part question. One; is this something that terrorists would like to do? I think the answer, without question, is yes. Terrorists like “grand” event’s, whether it be the size or multiple, well choreographed, events. A dirty bomb could be a pretty big event. The second question is; Can they pull it off? This isn’t as easy to answer. I think if they had the ability now, they would use it. However, there are more and more unfriendly and pseudo-friendly countries chasing nuclear “power”. Since a dirty bomb doesn’t require weapons grade material, any of these countries could make a fair bit of money off some of their nuclear waste.

You might remember the nuclear summit held in Washington last April; here are two quotes that I think are pretty important:

“A leading nuclear expert says it is only a matter of time before terrorists launch an attack using so-called dirty bombs.” From an ABC News article

“The White House has warned state and local governments not to expect a “significant federal response” at the scene of a terrorist nuclear attack for 24 to 72 hours after the blast, according to a planning guide.” From a USA Today article

So what do you do if caught near a dirty bomb explosion? Here is a scenario for you:

You’re at work and you hear sirens, you look outside and you see a mushroom cloud. You know that a mushroom cloud doesn’t mean a nuclear explosion; it could just be a large conventional explosion…

Before I cover the things to do after the explosion, let me cover some things that you can do before. A GHB (Get Home Bag) can be kept in your car. It is a bag stocked with enough supplies to get you home. Many people plan for walking home, in case of an EMP. I also recommend having a get home plan consisting of at least three totally different routes.

I have seen it recommended to get and stay indoors. Personally I don’t think that is the best advice in all situations. There are too many variables that could come into play; there may have been radiological, chemical or biological agents mixed in with the conventional explosion. As I mentioned above, terrorists like “grand”, so there could be more bombs. Oh and then there is the statement from the White House that local governments would be on their own for up to three days after the blast.

Now you need to make a judgment call, depending on how far away from the blast you are. If you are indoors, that might be the best place to be. (As for me, if I can see it, or hear the sirens for it, I am leaving.) In order to make a judgment call you’ll need as much information as you can get, as quickly as you can get it. Local radio and TV are good, but it’s going to take a while before they’re on scene. Police and other first responders will have the most current information. There are free police scanners on line such as this one. If you have an iPhone, there is an app called 5-0 Police Radio, this app lists 100’s of free police radio feeds. I’m sure there are similar apps for other phones.

Back to what to do after…

First, know that the most deadly part of a dirty bomb is the initial explosion.
 
 
Indoors

This is where you’ll need to make a judgment call. If you work near the explosion, you might want to take the rest of the day off. If you live near the blast, start thinking about bugging out and which route in your bug-out plan is the best. If you decide to stay indoors, close any open windows and turn off the air conditioning or heat.
 
 
Outdoors or In Your Car

In a large explosion there is a lot of dirt and debris in the air that you will risk breathing in. You can cover your mouth and nose with a cloth, or pack an N95 mask in your GHB. Outdoors is possibly the worst place to be. Seeking shelter or running for your car and heading for the best route in your get home plan might be the best idea. If you are in the car put the windows up and turn off the air conditioning or heat.
 
 
Fallout and Decontaminating

The three factors to protect from radiation are distance, time and shielding.
 
Distance

The more distance between you and the fallout particles the better. There are so many possible variables that it’s hard to say how far is far enough. I would say if you can still see the fallout coming down then you’re not far enough away.
 
Time

Fallout radiation loses intensity over time. Since we’re talking about a dirty bomb instead of a conventional nuclear bomb, the rate should be even faster as there will be less radiation. Once the fallout stops coming down I would expect government officials to begin checking the radiation levels and to begin cleaning up and rescuing people as soon as it is safe.
 
Shielding

If you have to shelter you want the heaviest, densest walls and barricades that you can find; concrete or brick are ideal. If you can’t find a building with sufficient walls then make a shelter in the innermost area, away from any windows.

If you have been outside it is important to decontaminate and remove fallout ASAP. You should remove outer clothing and put it in a bag and seal it. If possible rinse your hair and body off thoroughly with water before entering your home. This should remove any fallout particles. Also remember to decontaminate any pets that were outside.

 
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Disaster probability says that an Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) or a solar storm has a small chance of happening. If they happen, a massive number of people will be affected and left without electricity. There have been two recent books that have dealt with an EMP attack, I have read and enjoyed both; they are “One Second After” by William R. Forstchen and “Lights Out” by David Crawford.
 
Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP)

Congress established The United States EMP Commission in 2001 and reauthorized it in 2004. The EMP commission released The Critical National Infrastructures Report in 2008. This 208 page document is filled with the EMP threats to many different pieces of our infrastructure. Wikipedia has a good article on Electromagnetic pulse and has links to even more information.

From The Critical National Infrastructures Report (page 9)

“The electromagnetic pulse generated by a high altitude nuclear explosion is one of a small number of threats that can hold our society at risk of catastrophic consequences. The increasingly pervasive use of electronics of all forms represents the greatest source of vulnerability to attack by EMP. Electronics are used to control, communicate, compute, store, manage, and implement nearly every aspect of United States (U.S.) civilian systems. When a nuclear explosion occurs at high altitude, the EMP signal it produces will cover the wide geographic region within the line of sight of the detonation.”

Also from the The Critical National Infrastructures Report (page 9)

“The time required for full recovery of service would depend on both the disruption and damage to the electrical power infrastructure and to other national infrastructures. Larger affected areas and stronger EMP field strengths will prolong the time to recover. Some critical electrical power infrastructure components are no longer manufactured in the United States, and their acquisition ordinarily requires up to a year of lead time in routine circumstances.”

National Geographic covered what an EMP is and what it would look like. Here are two videos from Youtube, the first is a short 3-minute video, and the second is the full-length 45-minute video.

I have read a lot about EMP the last few years and have seen people say everything from it’s not a real threat to it’s more of a threat then conventional nuclear war. For EMP to be a viable threat our enemy would need a nuclear warhead and a missile capable of reaching our ionosphere. North Korea has nuclear capability and has threatened us with using them for participating in war games with South Korea. Do they have a weapon capable of achieving EMP? I don’t know. Pakistan also has nuclear weapons but at this time their government is friendly, though the safety of their nukes is in question because, I believe, they knew that Osama Bin Laden was living in their country and gave him support.

Most of our enemies do not have the technology to arm a missile with a warhead capable of being launched from their homeland and reaching the United States. They could however hide one in a cargo ship and fire it from fifty miles off our shore, straight into our ionosphere. It would only need to travel 200 miles straight up.

Solar Flare and Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)

These events are caused when the sun has a storm and launches huge amounts of radiation toward earth. This article from the New York Daily News called “ Dire warning: U.S. unprepared for massive solar flare storm; could lose power, communications ” explains it well; I will cover the highlights here.

“”It’s very likely in the next 10 years that we will have some impact like that described in the National Academy report,” Dr. Richard Fisher, director of NASA’s heliophysics division, told the Daily News. “Although I don’t know to what degree.”

Fisher explained that the sun works on an 11-year cycle and is now emerging from its quiet period. The next phase — the solar maximum — lasts from 2012 to 2015. During this period of time, massive solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can occur and could be strong enough to knock out satellites, disable high-voltage transformers and cripple communications worldwide.”

Here is a Podcast by Off The Grid Radio called “ Is Your Time Machine Ready? – Episode 031” it is an interview with John Kappenman. Mr. Kappenman is an electric engineer who has testified before Congress about America’s vulnerability to solar storms. I found this interview very informative and recommend you listen to it, or a transcribed version can be found here.. I’ll cover some of the main points here.

Mr. Kappenman points out that in our electric grid, the biggest vulnerabilities to a solar storm are the transformers:

“It would be transformers that are exposed to the highest levels of these induced currents from a geomagnetic storm that would be the most at risk of being permanently damaged. In today’s world manufacturing marketplace, we really don’t have the ability to manufacture and replace large numbers of damaged transformers. We’re looking at, in the case of the US alone, something that could take four to 10 years to recover from, based on the amount of transformers that we think could be manufactured and made available to us. And that might be a bit rosy because it assumes that somewhere a manufacturer will be unaffected by that storm and be able to begin manufacturing in a normal fashion. Under this sort of planetary event, I assume that we are probably making a rosy assumption that anybody would be able to resume any kind of normal functioning from a manufacturing standpoint.”

Mr. Kappenman goes on to say that the USA has in the neighborhood of 300 or more transformers and produces roughly 50 a year. “We don’t have the manufacturing capability right now in the US to manufacture at the very highest voltage levels – 765 KV.” Those cost tens of millions of dollars and “A lot of them are made in Brazil, Japan, Korea and so forth. They’re all non-domestic sources”

Now that we know why there is a danger and how difficult a recovery may be, Mr. Kappenman will explain what an event may look like, as it would unfold. (I added the paragraphs from the transcript to make reading easier)

“The next big crisis point would be things that would degrade within a very short period of time after the initial loss of power. One of the things that would occur would be major traffic snarl-ups because of the loss of street lighting, signal lighting, things like that.

Telecommunications will probably be gone within a matter of two to three days. Many of the telecommunications centers have some level of backup generation that they design into the facility but the problem becomes that those generators eventually run out of fuel and the ability to re-supply fuel to them is a serious issue. Even if you’re on natural gas supply, in residences and so forth, the problem with natural gas is many of the natural gas appliances that we depend upon – furnaces in particular – also require electric power to be available in order to operate and control those furnaces. Heating could become a major issue, especially if this occurs during a severe cold snap, which could add a complicating factor. Those are the ways that these inter-dependencies we have on electric power begin to stack up and impact virtually every other critical food, water and service supply that we need in the country.”

Mr. Kappenman’d first Off The Grid Radio Interview
Imagine the lights going off suddenly…and having no power for as long as ten years – Episode 010
 
Final Thoughts

Because the world is so much more dependent on the grid, an EMP or a very powerful CME would be more damaging now than at any other time in world history. Earth has seen solar flares and CME’s before, and we do often have advanced warning. This would give governments a chance to shut down parts of the grid. One of the things governments can do is harden the electrical grid, which is one of the reasons that Mr. Kappenman testified before congress.

I’m not as concerned about an EMP attack as I am about a solar flare/CME. While an EMP attack could still happen, there are a lot of things that would need to align perfectly first. A small CME or solar flare could still wreak havoc on satellites causing problems with cellular connections and GPS, which mean navigation problems for aircraft and cargo ships. A large CME could shut the grid down essentially.
 
What can we do?

We can continue to prepare as we have been. Remember the first line of this article, “Disaster probability says that an Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) or a solar storm has a small chance of happening”. These events are not something you should plan exclusively for, but they are something that you will become more prepared for, by becoming prepared for the smaller scale things that have a higher chance of happening, such as job loss, or more economic turmoil.

While a TEOTWAWKI event such as an EMP or CME has a small chance of happening, we still need to be aware. I do believe we will be affected by solar flares in the near future, as the sun goes through its eleven-year angry cycle. To increase your awareness you can subscribe for Solar Flare alerts.

While I don’t want to get in-depth on them Faraday Cage can offer some protection against EMP AND CME, by shielding the electromagnetic radiation.

Lastly, even though the chance of these events occurring is small, they should still be on our radar. I believe the timeline Mr. Kappenman offered is spot on. If there is no power, there is no water being pumped into many areas and food and other shortages will occur within days. Because of events like the looting in Minneapolis after the tornado, if we see an event of this type, you need to have a Bug Out Plan (BOP) and a Bug Out Bag (BOB) for each member of your family ahead of time. Keep in mind that the worst-case scenario in this particular instance means cars might not work due to them having circuit boards. Because of this, think of ways to bug out that allow you to move with all of your bug out gear. Securing gear to a bike and walking along side is one option. Getting permission to use a shopping cart is another. Using a game cart can work as well, if you have access to one.

In the worst-case scenario I think that civil unrest will happen pretty early. Bugging out quickly might be a good idea if you live in an urban or suburban area with a high crime rate.

 
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