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The War on Guns; Part Two

January 16, 2013 by

The President is to announce his plan to tackle gun violence later today, there are rumors it will entail some new legislation and some executive orders.   I’ll probably add my thoughts on it in the comments section later today.

 

The War on Guns; Part Two

 

Gun Grabbers

As I mentioned in part one, there have been people who don’t think civilians should own firearms since they were affordable enough for the average civilian to own one.  Some of these people have evil intent, but the vast majority is simply naive and afraid.  They seem to believe that more regulation will stop gun violence. Making drunk driving illegal hasn’t stopped it.  There are still many thousands of people arrested for DWI and even more who got away with it.  They also fail to realize that those committing gun violence often have procured the firearms illegally.  That same element who commits gun violence now, will still find a way to get guns.

Those in favor of much stricter gun control come from many avenues, some of which you might not be familiar with.

 

Law Makers

Recently Senator Feinstein had a press release of a bill she will propose to the Senate, aimed at Stopping the spread of deadly assault weapons.  The proposed bill would ban the sale of any militaristic style firearm that had a large capacity magazine.  This bill would stop the personal sale of any firearm, the “gun show loophole”, which allows a private citizen to purchase a table at a gun show and sell their own private collection to other civilians where a personal sale is legal.  These sales, to the best of my knowledge, do not require the seller to perform a background check.  This bill would grandfather in any guns owned at the date of signing, but would require they all be registered under the National Firearms Act and registration would require a picture and a finger print.

This bill is obviously troublesome to any legal gun owner, but something about it doesn’t sit right.  I think this is possibly one of two things.  The first is an attempt at Overton Window., which is a political maneuver where a law maker knows certain legislation would not be accepted in the current political climate; they propose something outrageous, knowing it will not be accepted and then they propose something a little more palatable.  The second proposition may still be bad, but people are more willing to accept it as it’s not nearly as bad as the first proposal.

The second possibility is that this bill is just the start.  If it is passed and we still see gun violence there could be harsher and harsher crackdowns.  As I mentioned above, the element of society who commits gun crime now, in large part, illegally possesses firearms now.  If more regulation is added those, the same people will still commit crimes with guns, which will lead to more regulation and restriction.  Layer upon layer of restriction will only cause legal, upstanding citizens to be unable to own firearms.

The most despicable incident was when Vice President Biden said Obama Considering ‘Executive Orders’ to Deal With Guns.  More on this below.

 

The Media

From news agencies to newspapers and untold blogs, the left has gotten behind stricter gun laws than at any time I can remember.  There have also been many celebrities who have filmed commercials asking:

“How many more?  Enough. Demand a plan. Right now. As a mom. As a dad. As a friend. As a husband. As a wife. As an American. As a human being. For the children of Sandy Hook…We can do better than this. It’s time for our leaders to act.”

How many of those hypocrites have done TV or movies where they used a gun and glorified violence? The trouble here is that this is effective and they know it.  We live in a society that pays more attention to what their favorite celeb is tweeting, dating and wearing than any relevant thing going on in the world around them.

 

School and Doctors

I have read multiple reports in the last couple of years about doctors asking children and adults about what firearms were kept in the home, where they were kept etc.  I, myself, was asked a few years ago during a routine doctor appointment.

I have also read of children being probed at school about what firearms their parents had.  I have a relative whose eleven year old child was talking about a zombie apocalypse.  A teacher overheard this and brought her inside, where she was questioned by multiple adults.  They asked her how she would deal with zombies, if her parents owned guns and other related questions.

I don’t know why schools and doctors are asking these questions or what they’re doing with the information, but you should be aware that some are asking it.  We told our kids what to say if ever asked these types of questions.

 

The Truth About Gun Violence

The truth about any “war” on any inanimate object is that they do not work.  In prohibition it was illegal to make, serve or drink booze, yet there was an entire sub culture that sprang to make, sell and drink booze.  The war on drugs has seen millions of people in and out of jail, but has done little to slow or stop trafficking, sale or use of drugs.  In fact some states are now legalizing marijuana.

Instead of waging war on guns, we should be taking a look at why and who commits gun violence.  We could also make soft targets harder.

 

Mental Illness and Depravity (the true problem)

If we take a look at those who commit mass shooting, I believe we would see most, if not all, were afflicted with some serious form of mental illness.  There are a couple of problems that don’t catch this before acts of violence occur.  First is that many people in the mentally ill persons life don’t want to bring the issue to light.  Some may even be in denial themselves.  Parents say “not my child” or “boys will be boys”.  No one wants to believe that their child is capable of harming them or anyone else, so they don’t get the police involved.  They don’t bring their child to get therapy and overlook certain behaviors.

Often times there can’t be intervention until the mentally ill person commits a crime.  As I mentioned above, loved ones often overlook small crimes, such as underage domestic violence.

I posted this on facebook the day of the Sandy Hook shooting:

“I do not understand the depth of human depravity, there will be some that come out after the tragedy in Connecticut railing against guns, when in truth they should be railing at depravity. We should all be praying for those who lost loved ones, God is the only one capable of healing pain so deep.”

I think that in many cases, when it comes to youth committing gun violence, we can look to the home.  I’m not necessarily saying it is the parents fault, at least not directly.  I have read about some of the kids who have taken part in school shootings and in many cases, the parents were not aware there was a problem.  Maybe they just weren’t involved enough in their kid’s life.  Maybe, because of the digital age we live in, it’s just easier for kids to hide things.

Some say its video games or violent movies.  I disagree, in part.  Yes there are some games and movies that are too violent, but waging war on the games or movies is not going to be any more effective than the war on alcohol, drugs or guns.  Endless hours of video games, violent or not, isn’t healthy.  Parents need to tell their kids they can’t play that game or can only play games for so long.  Parents need to be parents.  They need to stop trying to be their child’s friend.  They can be friends once they’re adults.

The truth is that if we paid more attention to mental illness and acts of depravity, the lives of those people would probably be enriched, and we may slow down the rate of violence, involving guns or not.

 

Guns Involved In Crime

My beautiful wife, Trudee, recently had a conversation with someone on Facebook who was fully behind banning all evil assault rifles but had no problem with people owning handguns, or so she said.  Trudee tried to use logic, which didn’t make a dent in this woman’s thinking.  This makes sense as this woman and many who think like her generate their opinion from irrational fear.  Here is some truth that you can use to inform yourself and others.

I posted this on Facebook recently: “FBI: More People Killed with Hammers, Clubs Each Year Than Rifles”.  This report shows that from 2005 to 2011, each year there were more people killed with hammers and clubs than with rifles.

“For example, in 2011, there was 323 murders committed with a rifle but 496 murders committed with hammers and clubs.”

While this does not take handguns into consideration, that isn’t the point.  Anti-gun advocates largely refer to “assault rifles”, which, according to the FBI, are less used in crimes than hammers.  This also leads me to believe that it is not just “assault rifles” that they want to take away.  I think they can just make an easier case to restrict “assault rifles” because there has already been a ban once.

Fox News has a story where reformed crooks say::

“the New York newspaper that published a map of names and addresses of gun owners did a great service – to their old cronies in the burglary trade.”

One of the reformed burglars went on to say:

“That was the most asinine article I’ve ever seen,” said Walter T. Shaw, 65, a former burglar and jewel thief who the FBI blames for more than 3,000 break-ins that netted some $70 million in the 1960s and 1970s. “Having a list of who has a gun is like gold – why rob that house when you can hit the one next door, where there are no guns?”

 

Guns Used to Stop Crime

Very rarely will you see the main stream media show a story about someone who used a gun to stop a crime. During research for this article I found two sites that publish every news story like this. One is the NRA and the other is The Armed Citizen.  There is most likely some overlap, but both are good resources to get examples of where a gun actually saved an innocent life.

 

What Can We Expect

I wish I could say I knew what to expect.  I may not know what will happen, but I do believe something will.  People have believed President Obama would go after guns since he made the comment, “they cling to their God and their guns”.  Now we have the Vice President talking about executive orders to deal with guns.  We also have the President saying he is putting his full weight behind dealing with guns.  I suppose they could just re-implement the old “assault weapon” ban, but I don’t think they will.  I think they believe the Overton Window has moved far enough that they can make a bigger grab.

An executive order used to bypass congress and make ownership or purchase of certain guns illegal, or requiring every firearm be registered would be unconstitutional and, thus, illegal.  This President has sidestepped congress and the constitution already.

If there is an executive order, there are at least three possibilities.  First, congress could override it with a vote of 2/3.  I honestly don’t see that happening. This is the same congress that passed ObamaCare after all.  The second option is something that Ted Nugent recently commented on as well.  Local law enforcement could refuse to enforce this as an illegal law.  This is also the goal of The Oath Keepers, who reach out to those active duty military and prior service military as well as law enforcement and ask them not to enforce ten (unlawful) orders if they are given.  The number one being disarming the American people.

If you are unaware, when you join the military you take the following oath:

“I, _____, do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; and that I will obey the orders of the President of the United States and the orders of the officers appointed over me, according to regulations and the Uniform Code of Military Justice. So help me God.”

Many veterans, myself included, believe that since we have been discharged from active duty, we are no longer beholden to the Uniform Code of Military Justice, or obligated to obey orders given from Officers or the President.  We do, however, feel we are still obligated to support and defend the constitution of the United States against all enemies foreign and domestic.

If Executive Orders are used, depending on the enforcement of them by local law enforcement, we could see another executive order used to install martial law and suspend Habeas Corpus.

 

How Can We Respond?

I say “can” because I won’t presume to tell you what you should do.  Here are my thoughts on how I believe a follower of Christ can act and not walk in sin.

First, let me recommend two articles written by Pastor Chuck Baldwin.  These are well worth reading.  The first, entitled My Line In The Sand Is Drawn Here!, covers his thoughts on the proposed bill from Senator Feinstein.  He also gives you some ways to fight this and to help you draw your own line in the sand.

The second article is called Revolution?.  In it, he explains how the Revolutionary war was actually sparked by gun control and how Christian leaders of the time took a very active role, defying a ruler imposing immoral laws on them.

Now is the time to pray for our enemies, to pray they act out of wisdom and logic and not out of irrational fear.  This is also the time to take action.  This is the time to let our Congressmen and Senators know that we want them to stand firm and protect the Second Amendment of the Constitution they swore an oath to protect.  You can find the phone number and other contact information for your Congressmen and Senators at USA.gov.

In case you’re wondering here is the oath they take.

“I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which I am about to enter: So help me God.”

If and Executive Order to go after guns is used, or if Congress and Senate overreach in regulating firearms, they will go against the Constitution and against what our Founding Fathers saw as God-given rights to all people.

In God’s Law vs. Man’s Law I explain that when Man’s law contradicts God’s Law, we can be morally correct and violate man’s laws.  I also give examples of this from scripture.

There have been several people saying there will be blood in the street if they come after guns.  I pray not, but  I have to say, I do see it as a possibility and I would not have said that even three months ago.  Each one of us will have to pray for guidance and draw our own line in the sand.  I caution you from posting anything inflammatory on this or any other site on the Internet.

May God bless us each with His guidance.  Lord please give us wisdom so we may see how You would have us act.  Let us stand firm in Your Word.  Bless those elected to lead us with wisdom and courage to uphold the oath they took to defend the Constitution.  Father, I ask that this fight end peacefully and that the outcome not infringe on the rights You have given to all people.

 

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The War on Guns; Part One
The War on Guns; Part Two

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The War on Guns; Part One

January 14, 2013 by

Unless you have been under a rock the last month or so, you have heard multiple things about the federal government “going after guns”.  This issue is very important and multifaceted.  I want to talk about why this issue is so important, the Second Amendment, the attacks on it and the people who are attacking it, what we might see and how we as Christian gun owners can respond.

This will be a lot of reading, so I am going to break this up into two articles.  The first will explain why this issue is so important.  I’ll also touch on the Founding fathers and the Second Amendment. I am going to link to other articles that I think you should read as well.  I know this is a lot of reading, but it’s important to know why this fight is so important and to understand the argument for our right to keep and bear arms.

 

The War on Guns; Part One

The war on guns is not new but in the last few weeks it has reached a fevered pitch.  The Obama administration is taking the advice of its former chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, who suggested “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste.”  Please do not misunderstand.  Let me make this clear now; the shootings that have happened in recent history are horrific acts committed by depraved and often mentally ill people.   Despite this, the Obama administration is using this as an Overton Window to take advantage of the situation and do something they could not have done sooner.

 

Why Is This So Important?

There are two reasons this issue is so important.  The first is because of what we may face and what the past has shown when firearms have been restricted.  The second reason knowing this information is important is to have a rebuttal to those who would argue to take our guns.

 

Having a Ready Response

Security is one of the five basic human needs.  I believe it is the most important one, because without it you cannot protect the other four.  I believe the Founding Fathers also thought it was vitally important.  I do not think it is by mistake that right to “keep and bear arms” is the Second Amendment, following only the right to speak out in protest.

The Apostle Paul told us we should have an answer ready to explain and defend our faith.  I think that is good advice for anything you have convictions about.  You should be able to logically answer and explain your stance to anyone who challenges you.  I say logically because I think people that base their opinion in emotion often don’t sound serious.  That is not to say that one cannot be emotional about their beliefs, I just think one should have them rooted in logic and facts and speak passionately.

I was recently asked what a Christian should do if the government comes after guns.  I answered that we should follow God’s law any time it and man’s law contradict.  If you understand what the Founders intent was when they wrote the Constitution and the Bill of Rights, you’ll have an easier time answering that question on many subjects dealing with our laws, including gun rights.

 

Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

Let me first say that I am not comparing President Obama to Hitler or any other despot.  There have been those who believe no civilian should own a firearm since firearms were affordable enough for the average citizen to own one.  I will discuss gun grabbers in further detail later in this article series.  For now, I want to discuss some of the world leaders who have forced strict gun control on their nation and the outcome it led to.

There is some controversy about Hitler and gun control.  From my study of history, I am led to believe that the Weimar Republic had strict gun control in place long before Hitler came to power.  Hitler did take advantage of it and Jews were not allowed to own firearms.  He is also quoted as saying at a dinner talk on April 11, 1942:

““The most foolish mistake we could possibly make would be to allow the subject races to possess arms.  History shows that all conquerors who have allowed their subject races to carry arms have prepared their own downfall by so doing.  Indeed, I would go so far as to say that the supply of arms to the underdogs is a sine qua non for the overthrow of any sovereignty.   So let’s not have any native militia or native police. German troops alone will bear the sole responsibility for the maintenance of law and order throughout the occupied Russian territories, and a system of military strong-points must be evolved to cover the entire occupied country.”

Joseph Stalin is quoted as saying:

“If the opposition disarms, well and good. If it refuses to disarm, we shall disarm it ourselves.”

Mao Tze Tung, Nov 6 1938

“All political power comes from the barrel of a gun.  The communist party must command all the guns, that way, no guns can ever be used to command the party.”

Most recently Robert Mugabe, the dictator of Zimbabwe, has instituted a ban on guns.  Here is a link I found interesting; a liberal who had their mind changed on the possession of firearms.

Something these and so many other evil men understood is that there are two sure ways to control people, take their guns and take their food.  There is a quote that say’s “God created man, Samuel Colt made them equal”.  It is a firearm that levels the playing field and gives a people the ability to stand up and resist tyranny.

Some people will say “This could never happen here”.  I wonder if the Jews in Germany thought the same thing, or the people of Zimbabwe, Rwanda and so many others.

I saw a post recently on facebook that said “I saw a movie once where only the police and military were allowed to own guns.  The name of that movie was “Schindler’s list”.  Never Again!

 

The Founding Fathers

I wrote a series of three articles last year that dealt with the Founding Fathers the Constitution, and the future of America.  I also wrote God’s law vs. Man’s law.  In them, I explain that it took great courage to write the Declaration of Independence. Aside from the Bible, it is one of the most important documents in existence, largely due to the following sentence:

“We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.”

The reason that one sentence is so important is because it states that the rights mentioned above in the Bill of Rights and the right of life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness and yes, the right to keep and bear arms are granted by God, and what God grants, man cannot take away.

The Founders knew that a large government could not be trusted.  That is why there are so many checks and balances.

 

The Second Amendment

“A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.”

Something important to keep in mind when studying the Bible, the Constitution or any historical document is that context its king.  Something taken out of context can completely change what the document means; this is the case with the Second Amendment.  I have done a lot of reading the last couple of weeks, shoring up what I didn’t fully understand, keeping track of what the anti-gunners were doing and how pro-gunners were responding.  I came across a fantastic document from the Lectric Law Library called The Second Amendment: The Framers’ Intentions.  The author does a fantastic job of explaining the wording of the Second Amendment and how the particular words meant something different at the writing of the Second Amendment than they do today.  I highly suggest you read it, as I will only touch on some key points of the Amendment.  Any of the italicized text in the Second Amendment section comes from The Second Amendment: The Framers’ Intentions.

The first question to answer is; “why would this need to be specified and added as an Amendment?”  As Noah Webster, whose name you might recognize from the Merriam-Webster Dictionary, is quoted:

“Before a standing army can rule, the people must be disarmed; as they are in almost every kingdom in Europe.”

You see, the founders knew that tyrants preferred an unarmed populace.  They knew that an over reaching government with a standing army behind it was a threat to the liberty of the citizenry.

Once we understand that these words were very carefully chosen and that the Founders thought they were important enough to make them the Second Amendment, let’s take a look at the words themselves.  I’m going to break this into smaller pieces and dissect each one.

 

A Well Regulated Militia

Context is king.  When many people hear the word militia today, they might think of extremists who stock guns and are just waiting for a chance to use them.  But, when the Second Amendment was written, the word meant something else.

“When the Constitution was ratified, the Framers unanimously believed that the “militia” included all of the people capable of bearing arms.”

“ALL of the people capable of bearing arms”; this means that according to the founders we are all in the militia.  Alright, so anyone who is capable of bearing arms is in the militia, but what exactly does “well regulated militia” mean?

In modern times the word “regulate” often makes one think of the government regulation and restrictions.   A much better (and much longer) explanation can be found at The Second Amendment: The Framers’ Intentions.  A condensed version is that the founders knew the militia might one day have to fight a standing army raised and supported by the federal government.  They would not have made the militia subject to be regulated by the government.  Who then would be the regulatory body of the militia?  Again, context is king:

“This interpretation is in keeping with English usage of the time, which included within the meaning of the verb “regulate” the concept of self- regulation or self-control (as it does still to this day). The concept that the people retained the right to self-regulate their local militia groups (or regulate themselves as individual militia members) is entirely consistent with the Framers’ use of the indefinite article “a” in the phrase “A well regulated Militia.”

That’s right, “We the people” are to self-regulate our own militia groups made up of anyone capable of bearing arms.

 

“Being necessary to the security of a free State”

Some of us may say we live under tyranny now, but it pales in comparison to the tyranny the Founders lived under.  The Founders knew there were three potential enemies; the first, an invading country, the second, a single terrorist or small groups of terrorists, the last, the standing Army sponsored by the federal government.

It is the job of the standing army to fight against invading forces.  It is the job of police agencies to deal with terrorists.  It is the job of the militia to be a check against the standing army.

“Thus, “well regulation” referred to something else. Since the fundamental purpose of the militia was to serve as a check upon a standing army, it would seem the words “well regulated” referred to the necessity that the armed citizens making up the militia(s) have the level of equipment and training necessary to be an effective and formidable check upon the national government’s standing army.”

“This view is confirmed by Alexander Hamilton’s observation, in The Federalist, No. 29, regarding the people’s militias ability to be a match for a standing army: ” . . . but if circumstances should at any time oblige the government to form an army of any magnitude, that army can never be formidable to the liberties of the people, while there is a large body of citizens, little if at all inferior to them in discipline and use of arms, who stand ready to defend their rights . . . .”

Of course we don’t have a structured citizen militia as well trained or as well-equipped as the standing army, but this does provide the basis for citizens to own weapons on the same level as the average soldier.  This would not apply to planes, tanks, mine or grenades, but it would permit semi-auto rifles and semi-auto handguns with high capacity magazines.

 

The right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.

The first two parts of the Second Amendment set the stage for why the people have the (God given) right to keep and bear arms.  This last part flatly states the right shall not be infringed.

“Furthermore, returning to the text of the Second Amendment itself, the right to keep and bear arms is expressly retained by “the people,” not the states. Recently the U.S. Supreme Court confirmed this view, finding that the right to keep and bear arms was an individual right held by the “people,” — a “term of art employed in select parts of the Constitution,” specifically the Preamble and the First, Second, Fourth, Ninth and Tenth Amendments. Thus, the term “well regulated” ought to be considered in the context of the noun it modifies, the people themselves, the militia(s).”

Here is another fantastic piece from Roanoke.com called In Webster’s English.  It explains that the English language has changed since the writing of the Second Amendment and uses the first Webster’s dictionary to explain it.

 

The Second Amendment in Modern Times

There have been some recent developments with the Second Amendment.  First, on August 24, 2004, the Justice Department released a brief on Whether the Second Amendment Secures an Individual Right.. They state:

“we conclude that the Second Amendment secures a personal right of individuals, not a collective right that may only be invoked by a State or a quasi-collective right restricted to those persons who serve in organized militia units.”

In the wake of illegal confiscation of firearms after Hurricane Katrina, there was H.R. 5013 (109th): Disaster Recovery Personal Protection Act of 2006, which, among other things, states:

“The Second Amendment to the Constitution states that a `well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed’, and Congress has repeatedly recognized this language as protecting an individual right.”

Most recently, on 6-28-2010, the Supreme Court upheld, 5-4, that The Second Amendment’s guarantee of an individual right to bear arms applies to state and local gun control laws.

 

In Summary

The Founding Fathers clearly laid out that the right to keep and bear arms was an individual right.  There have been many evil men who have tried to control their people by outlawing the ownership of firearms.  I believe the Founders knew this was a possibility in the future of our nation, which is why they spelled it out.  Even though they spelled it out, some have tried to muddy its meaning.  With the paper from the Justice Department and the decision from the Supreme Court it is clear:

 

The right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.

 

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The War on Guns; Part One
The War on Guns; Part Two

Filed Under: Mind Set, Security, Signs of the Times Tagged With: ,

The Threats From Within

December 12, 2012 by

I meant to write this article last year but time got away from me and then I misplaced my notes.  My wife recently found my notes so I decided to write the article now.  I had the opportunity to attend  MSTEP, Minnesota Symposium on Terrorism and Emergency Preparedness, in November of 2011.  This article will be about some of the things I learned about through MSTEP, but will not just be about Minnesota.  I will discuss several of the threats that I believe we face from within our borders.

At the symposium there were four keynote speakers and twenty four classes to choose from.  Each person attended eight classes they chose.  Much of the information given was facts, and some of it overlapped between the various classes.  Because of this, the article might be a list of facts and not flow all that well.  I apologize.

There is not a nation on earth that could successfully invade America.  Our armed forces are unparalleled, even if the majority of them are overseas.  Also, as the Japanese General said, “You cannot invade the mainland United States. There would be a rifle behind every blade of grass.”  For these reasons, I believe we will see small groups of people and even lone wolves that strike us.  I wrote an article a couple years ago called Lone Wolves and Swarm Attacks that goes into more detail on them.

 

Gangs

There are an estimated 1,400,000 gang members in the Unites States.  In this article from the military newspaper “Stars and Stripes”, the FBI says U.S. criminal gangs are using military to spread their reach.  I have also read reports of gang members joining the military to learn tactics.

 

Unrestricted Warfare, China’s Plan to Destroy the USA

One of the keynote speakers mentioned that a Chinese Military manual touts different ways to attack America, which our Military could not deal with.  Some of the attacks are terroristic in nature, while others are economic attacks.

 

Hackers Infiltrating our Infrastructure

I have linked various articles detailing hackers from unfriendly nations, such as Russia, China, and others in the Middle East, infiltrating our electric and water infrastructure.   The thinking is that they are learning the systems and could shut them down at a later time.

 

Terrorist Attacks

From 9-11 until the fall of 2011, there have been 58 terrorist attacks stopped.   Every two weeks there is another terrorist attack plotted.  One of the keynote speakers said that a deputy director of the FBI said he believed a dirty bomb would go off in the USA.  I have read other reports from people “in the know” who have predicted the same thing.

 

Somalis in Minnesota

You may have seen reports over the last few years of Somali men that immigrated to Minnesota, who were found dead in Somalia and other places in Africa.  It was said that in 1991, charity organizations moved Somali refugees to Minnesota.  On a side note, did these charities look at the weather differences between these two places?  I digress, many of these families moved into the Twin Cities, which consists of Minneapolis and St. Paul.  Most of the families continue their ethnic heritage and traditional dress and have not assimilated into American culture.

It is believed that these men were approached by Al Shibab, a Somali terrorist organization, in a Mosque in the Twin Cities.  If they can recruit them to go back to Somalia and commit a suicide bombing, they can probably get them to do one in the states.

 

Pandemic

Trudee also attended a talk on the risk of pandemic and the response of healthcare in the Twin Cities and surrounding areas.  Whether the pandemic is natural or “weaponized” this is an area of great enough concern that there are caches of antibiotics and others medications that might be needed.  There are also several facilities that can be converted into mass dispensing facilities, and other facilities that will be used when local hospitals are filled.

 

Outside of Minnesota

I have seen multiple articles, such as this one from the Arizona Capital Times entitled Hezbollah terror threat on U.S.-Mexico border is real .  The article is worth reading.  It gives several examples of people tied to terrorist groups sneaking through our border with Mexico.  One example is:

“According to Mr. Taylor, a Muslim cleric, Abdullah al-Nafsi, said that “there is no need for airplanes and planning; one man with the courage to carry a suitcase of anthrax through the tunnels from Mexico to the United States could kill 330,000 Americans in one hour.”

There are also issues at many of our ports.  I read a report that said maybe only 10% of the cargo containers are checked.  It would be quite easy for someone to sneak in along with some type of payload.

 

Please Don’t Dumb it Down

Terrorists have a thing for big elaborate attacks.  9-11 is well known, but there have been many other, mostly failed, attacks all over the world.  Don’t get me wrong, they have some luck with collaborated attacks, sometimes bombing multiple US embassies in multiple countries.

When they have done the greatest damage is usually when one man acts alone, using easily attainable weapons.  It is when they include multiple people or elaborate plots that they are arrested or fail.

 

Final Thoughts

There are so many potential threats already inside our borders, they only need to get lucky once for terror to set in, and liberty to slip away.  Let’s pray for continued excellent law enforcement, as well as continued elaborate and failed plans for those who seek to do us harm.

 

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Could America Break Apart?

November 30, 2012 by

(Photo courtesy of The Wall Street Journal)

Earlier this year, I wrote an article called “The Future of America”.  In it, I mention that Christians in America are aware that the US is not mentioned in the End Times but that this doesn’t necessarily mean America no longer exists, but that it is just a nation of less prominence.  Is it possible that America could break apart?  If you’re someone who only comes here for preparedness related information, you may want to skip this article.  However, it will deal with preparedness and how you plan your future.

In 2008, I read an article from the Wall Street Journal called “As if Things Weren’t Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.”.  In it, a Russian professor named Igor Panarin predicted that the U.S. would break apart in 2010.  He says “…mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar…”  Obviously he is wrong, or is his timing just off?

After I read the article in 2008, I filed it in the mind bank and forgot about it.  That is until recently.  The day after Election Day, I woke up to the headline on the Drudge Report that said “America the Divided” and it had a map separated by red and blue.  A week or so later my wife mentioned an article she had seen that said some Texas citizens had filed a petition for secession and it was quickly gaining signatures.  Within a few days I saw reports of more private citizens from other states following the Texan’s example.  It was then that this article popped back into mind.  I just made a mental note of it and moved on.

A few days later, a reader sent me a link to a prophecy from Rick Joyner where he made mention to Russians holding the belief that the U.S. would break into four or more parts.  It was then that I really started to ponder this, wondering if it is possible and, if so, how it might happen.

 

Russian Professor Igor Panarin

I read a few different articles on this professor and the one by the Wall Street Journal called “As if Things Weren’t Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.” is, by far, the best.  In it, Mr. Panarin is described as “not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.”  I only know what I have read in these few articles about this man.  He seems to have a solid resume.  We might see similar credentials for commentators on any one of the alphabet stations.  As to how Mr. Panarin came to this conclusion;

“He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.”

The article goes on to explain just how he thinks the U.S. will be broken up.

“California will form the nucleus of what he calls “The Californian Republic,” and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of “The Texas Republic,” a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an “Atlantic America” that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls “The Central North American Republic.” Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.”

How Could It Happen?

I don’t know if this could happen to America, but since our great nation isn’t mentioned in the end times, it is a possibility, as are so many other reasons it’s not mentioned.  Since it is a possibility, what would need to happen to change the U.S.A. into a fractured continent of territories?  Below are some things I think would need to happen for this to take place.  Some of the things listed might already be taking place, but they would need to become more commonplace.

The military might of the U.S.A. is unmatched.  If the U.S is brought down, it would have to come from within.  Pitting the right against the left, the rich against the poor, one race against another and dividing the UNITED people of America, would be a must.

Capitalism would need to be broken and turned into a form of socialism.  There would need to be so many people receiving government handouts that it would imbalance the economic system…Cloward and Piven strategy anyone?

There would need to be decaying morals; things that were once seen as obscene by the mainstream would need to become commonplace.  Those who hold to the morals of the past would need to be demonized and called “haters”.

I think Mr. Panarin is right, that eventually civil war would need to break out.  Where would the lines be drawn this time?  He claims that it would be along racial lines, but I’m not so sure. I have written before that I think there is more racial tension now than there was a few years ago, but I don’t see it as bad enough to go to war over.

If the Cloward and Piven strategy overloaded the economy and the tax rate became crippling to the point where a state or two said “enough is enough”, there might be enough angst between the givers and the takers, between states that were bankrupt and states that were able to keep to their budget, to cause riots and violence to break out.  Depending on how the federal government responded to these situations, a civil war could possibly break out.

 

Pop Culture

I have noticed that in some TV shows and movies, the U.S. was broken into parts.  In the television show “Jericho”, there were nukes and an EMP that shut the grid down.  Towns fought against each other and militias formed to take control.  I forget the lines that were drawn, but I believe there were at least four main pieces.  There is also the current television show Revolution.  In it, there was something that brought the electric grid down.  The show takes place 15 years after that and the United States is no more.  It is broken up into territories controlled by militias.  I just watched the remake of Red Dawn.  In it, there are a few countries who have taken pieces of America captive as the small armies wage war to reunite her.

Does this mean anything?  Probably not, but I do find it interesting that some of the most creative minds writing screenplays for movies and television see America being segmented after a major terrorist attack, the electric grid going down and not coming up or after invasion.

 

Giants Do Fall

Other large nations have fallen and been broken up.  The Roman Empire is probably the most notable in ancient history, but there were many others.  The USSR is the most notable in modern times, falling in 1991 and breaking up into fifteen countries.  They were the only other super power, but they proved you can’t be too big to fail.

 

Final Thoughts

Is this possible?  I don’t know, I pray not.  I say “God forbid it” with one breath and with the next, “Your will be done.”  I was praying for America and thinking about what may lay ahead.  I believe God told me, “Do not let your love of country come between you and I.”  I don’t know what God has planned for America.  Lord, please bring revival before any judgment.

 

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Review of After Armageddon

November 26, 2012 by

Earlier this year, I wrote an article called “How a True Pandemic May Look”.  In it, I explained, at a macro level, what a pandemic might look like.  JP recently sent me an email containing a link to a site hosting a YouTube video of a History Channel special called “After Armageddon”.  First, let me say that I am not posting the link to the video.  I don’t know how the copyright works with it being on YouTube.  If you want to see it, search YouTube for “After Armageddon”.  There are some videos that are broken up in 8-9 minute sections, but I did see one full length one.  I will be going into detail on some of the information covered, so if you want to watch it without me spoiling it, consider this fair warning.

All that being said, the reason I am bringing up this video is that it takes a very micro level look at how a worldwide pandemic will affect the individual.  Their disclaimer is “This Program is a theoretical account of the worst case scenario for global disaster.  This is not a real emergency.”  The premise of the show is that a pandemic with high morbidity and mortality is sweeping across Europe, South America, Russia and Southern Africa.  At first the US government doesn’t acknowledge there are any confirmed cases, but just a couple weeks after the first cases are discovered abroad, there are many affected in the US.

They have a panel of experts talking about the different aspects of how a pandemic will affect everyday life.  The fictional story follows a family from Los Angeles from before there are any acknowledged cases on US soil, to years after the pandemic.  The acting was pretty bad, but I didn’t watch it for the acting.  As the shows disclaimer mentions, this is a theoretical account of a worst case scenario.  I have mentioned before that a pandemic is one of the “big ones” that concerns me the most.   We have had them multiple times in human history, and it could take weeks to months to produce a vaccine.  World travel is easier than ever before, so spreading of a pandemic would be faster than at any other time.  That being said, a large-scale, true pandemic, such as the one in 1918, is a very rare thing.

I used this show to play the “what would I do” game.  While some of the decisions the family in the show makes are not decisions I would have made, putting yourself in different scenarios and deciding the best course of action is a great way to practice “survival thinking”.

The show covered a wide range of topics throughout the entire show, touching on such things as security throughout.  I am going to cover some of the general topics instead of going along the timeline the show used.

 

Healthcare

As I mentioned, the show has a pandemic spreading worldwide after only three weeks.  Because a trip that used to take weeks can now be made in less than a day, it is completely possible for someone who is newly infected to travel to another country before they begin to show signs of sickness.  As the pandemic is really taking hold in America they say that many healthcare professionals will not show up for work.  After some time, hospitals may close their doors and not take any new patients in.  This is in part because they are full and have no more room, because they don’t have any way of treating patients and partly due to lack of staffing.  When I went through CERT, the county emergency manager said that it is expected that as many as 30% of first responders and healthcare professionals won’t go in to work.  This could be due to fear of catching the illness or because either a loved one or they, themselves, have gotten sick.

The show said that the number of dead bodies would be overwhelming, with no one to come and remove them.  I think this could be true.  Also, what would you do with them all?  The only thing I can think of is mass graves.  If you live in a town of 10,000 and the pandemic had a morbidity rate of 30% and a mortality rate of 10% that would mean that your town alone would see 300 people die from the pandemic.   It is easy to see how healthcare and those who deal with the deceased could be quickly overwhelmed.

As I mentioned, the show covered a large time frame.  One of the things they said would take place months to years after the pandemic had run its course was that there would be limited healthcare, maybe going back to what it was in the early twentieth century.  People would get sick and die from things they haven’t in ten to twenty years.  A cut that becomes infected could be deadly.

 

Preparedness

In the show, the father is a paramedic and goes to work one day to be told that the hospital has shut down.  He sneaks in and when he sees all the sick people his eyes are opened to how bad the situation is.  He goes to the store and buys whatever supplies he can find.  One of the commentators makes the statement that I am sure many of you have heard, “the average family has roughly around three days of food in their home”.  He then says, “To really go to ground you need three months or more”.  Since most of us are aware of the need to have much more than three days stored, I am going to leave this alone.

The family decides to self-quarantine until the crime rate and loss of electricity pushes them to flee for the wife’s sister in Idaho.  They soon find the major highways out of the city gridlocked and must find an alternate route.  I bring this up because, while I think that in most situations battening down is the better choice, you should know multiple routes to bug out.  These routes, as one of the commentators puts it, “should be the road less traveled.”

Along the way the family is forced to abandon the SUV and carry very little of their supplies.  The commentators talk about only carrying what is needed and that you may be forced to loot the things to keep you alive.   I wrote an article called “Is it ever okay to loot or salvage”.  If you have never considered this subject, I recommend reading that article.

It is also mentioned that you will have to think of non-traditional places to get water.  Hotel pools and water heaters are mentioned and the father gets some water from a car radiator, which is not an option for most of the year in northern states.

I’ll explain this more in the next section, but in the show, the power goes out for good and oil shipments are no more.  Due to this, it is mentioned that we will need to learn the skills our grandparents knew.  This is in relation to growing and harvesting food.  I have no way to prove this, but I imagine that just two generation ago most people either canned or knew someone who did.  I bet today there is maybe one in twenty who does.

 

Infrastructure

As I mentioned above the family decided to self-quarantine and would have stayed home had the rising crime and lack of power not driven them out.  It was said that there are 102 nuclear power plants in the US, and only 5000 people know how to run them.  Due to staff and fuel shortages there are multiple power station failures.  The show didn’t get into this but it is important to be aware of.  Nuclear power plants have large generators on site to keep the pumps running that keep the rods cool.  I have heard that these generators have a two week supply of diesel on site.  If the power doesn’t come back on line before the fuel runs out and if there is no more diesel brought in, we could be looking at a very serious situation at the end of those two weeks.

Related to the power stopping is the Internet going down.  This would impact just about every aspect of life.  I’m not talking just about email and surfing.  So many companies have integrated the internet into their business, from scheduling to inventory management, air traffic control to power management of remote systems.

Because there is no power, the water stops pumping.  This means that the toilets stop working.  The family in the show is forced to bury their waste outside.  One of the commentators says something to the affect “that due to the lack of a working sewage system this adds to the spreading of disease not associated with the pandemic.”

There is also a mention of the lack of oil and power to push water to irrigation systems.  In terms of growing food, we would be back to the 1850’s.  It is said that “without irrigation farms become wastelands.”  Because of the lack of running water for irrigation, famine pushes the death toll even higher after the pandemic has run its course.

 

Society

One commentator remarks on lessons learned from hurricane Katrina (this might have been two different commentators, but the gesture is the same). “Katrina showed us how thin the polite veneer is.  It took four days to descend into anarchy.”  Another comment is made that “we’re only nine meals away from anarchy.”  I think three to four days sounds about right.  Watching your loved ones go hungry for three days or going hungry yourself for that long could drive people to use violence to try and get what they don’t have to survive.

They said that towns might take up arms, shut their borders and not allow anyone to enter or exit.  This will be done to prevent any sick from entering and also to keep Joe Dirtbag out.  In smaller towns, community food would be rationed and a triage would be set up to determine who will get to eat and how much they may get to eat.  Authority is local and can be guaranteed as long as there is a local Sheriff who is effective.  In one scene, bandits break in to steal from a small town.  They are caught and the sheriff executes them in the middle of the street.

One of the commentators, whom I believe was a professor said, “Both in destruction phase and in rebuilding phase, religion will be very popular.”  There will be a lot of apocalyptic sermons and the pandemic blamed on the sins of the past.  I think this is probably true.  I remember hearing how full churches were after 9-11.

 

Security

It is said that violence will become the norm and security becomes the most important aspect.  When the family begins to run out of food, the husband goes in search of some.   He sees just how much things have deteriorated and begins to throw clothes out in the yard,  explaining to his wife how bad it is and that they have to make the house look like its already been looted and vandalized.

One night the son sees people going through their neighbor’s house and they decide to leave the next day for the wife’s sister’s home in Idaho.   As I mentioned above, they find the main route clogged and attempt another route, which ends up having a “road block” with armed men who start firing shots as the SUV turns around to avoid them.  It is said that “the road less traveled is preferred”, and that “not being seen is preferable to trying to fight.”

The commentators talk of “people forming gangs to obtain the resources they need.” And another said “They’ll be looking for food, they’ll be looking for drugs, they’ll be looking for gold or silver or something thing will have value after.”  The husband tried to barter with someone to get some food and finds that cash is worthless.  The people (thugs) with the food were still interested in his watch.

One of the commentators said something I didn’t know, or at least hadn’t thought of this way; “In a famine situation, children are often the most dangerous.  They are the most prone to violence.”

 

Final Thoughts

While I didn’t learn anything new, I think this show is worth watching and I am glad I did.  A pandemic happening in the manner they depict is something I pray we never see.  Those who read this article or visit other preparedness sites might be better prepared for it, but all of humanity will feel the impact.

 

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Lessons from Hurricane Sandy

November 5, 2012 by

It’s been almost a week since Hurricane Sandy reached the East Coast.  There are still millions affected in her wake.  Because there are so many still affected, I hesitate to write this, but I think there are lessons to be learned that will have more of an impact now, since this is still a current event.

 

Losing it all

Sometimes there are events like hurricanes and tornadoes that are so big, no matter how prepared you are, you lose everything you own.  In these events only having a cache of supplies at a location away from your home would still be useful.  You could have an agreement with a friend or relative to each store some supplies at the others home.  You could also rent a small storage unit.  This would ensure you have clothes, copies of important documents and possibly even some food or other preparations.

 

Looting and lawlessness

Looting is a very large problem.  One resident is quoted saying ‘It’s like the Wild West’.  The article goes on to say, “With little police presence on the storm-ravaged streets, many residents of the peninsula have been forced to take their protection into their own hands, arming themselves with guns, baseball bats and even bows and arrows to ward off thugs seeking to loot their homes.”

I have mentioned a few times in the past that defending and protecting your family and possibly your neighborhood may fall on you and your neighbor’s shoulders.  This hurricane is an excellent reminder.  There were also reports of people dressing like Con Ed workers and a Red Cross worker to gain access to restricted areas to loot.

Here is an article from the New York Times called In New York’s Public Housing, Fear Creeps In With the Dark.  It explains that people who live in areas of New York that are without power fear the dark, because of the crimes committed in it.  This isn’t just when the sun goes down, but also in windowless stairways and the like.  What I took away from that article wasn’t just that the dark was to be feared, but how the blackout brought citizens together and bonded them into a community.

“In the meantime, heroes emerged among public housing residents, with those well prepared and able helping those who were not.”

And

“There’s a sense of community,” said Darryl MacCullum, 24, who lives at the Jacob Riis Houses in the East Village, where the tidal surge had, for a time, ringed the buildings like moats. “Neighbors I usually don’t talk to, I talk to now.”

The residents cooked for each other, eager to not waste food that was thawing fast. At the Red Hook Houses on Wednesday night, there was an impromptu outdoor barbecue for 25 people, with hamburgers, frankfurters and ribs sizzling on grills. “

In times of crisis police and other emergency services are pushed to their limit. I was told in CERT that there are 300 civilians for every first responder.  Because of this we need to be prepared to meet our five basic human needs.

 

Those Unprepared to Last a Week

As I stated above, there are some events that you just cannot prepare for.  When there is a direct hit, you lose everything.  This section is not directed at those people.  It is aimed at those who did not heed the call to evacuate and were ill prepared to last the aftermath of the hurricane.  In this article from ABC News, people were pleading for help just three days after the hurricane.  They were asking their elected officials for clothing, food, water and gas.  Below is a video of the reporter showing how people were dumpster diving to get food to eat.

 

 

I’m not sharing any of this to put down the ill prepared, but to show how truly ill prepared so many people are and also to show how quickly people will begin to panic because of their lack of resources.

 

Gas Shortages and Rationing

There have been multiple reports of lines of people over a mile long waiting to get gasoline. Here is a report from a CBS New York affiliate stating “Drivers Waiting For 6 Hours At Midtown Gas Station”. In New Jersey Governor Christie Orders Odd-Even Rationing System For Filling Up Gas Tanks.

“Residents with license plates ending in an odd number can make gas purchases on odd-numbered days of the month Residents with plates ending in an even number will be able to buy gas on even-numbered days, the governor said.”

Imagine only being able to purchase gas on even days and then having to wait in line for six hours to get it. I have said before that our economy runs on oil, but for many of these people the fuel also runs their refrigerator and gives them a means to charge their cell phones to communicate with the outside world.

 

Government Incompetence

There were many complaints after Hurricane Katrina about the government’s poor response.  Many people are not aware that the federal government has to be invited in by state government and that is what caused the delay.  You would think there would have been a better response to Hurricane Sandy, but in many ways there hasn’t been.

The New York City Marathon saw many police officers, large generators, food and water diverted to it instead of to the relief effort. As of this morning they canceled the marathon, but the generators sat unused.

FEMA has a policy called “Lean forward” that calls for advanced staging of supplies.  Here is a report that says “FEMA failed to have any meaningful supplies of bottled water — or any other supplies”.

This goes to show that even when the government means well they are often incompetent.  The larger an enterprise of any kind is, the more ineffective they can become.  Often the left hand doesn’t know what the right is doing, or what either should be doing.

 

My Take:

Chances are, if you’re reading this article, you’re fairly well prepared to last at least a week.  This hurricane should be a wake-up call for many, to have a minimum level of preparedness to meet their five basic human needs.  But there have been many wake-up calls in our recent past that were not heeded.  Because of this, there will be plenty of chances in the future for those of us who are better prepared to be the heroes mentioned above and to be light to the world.

 

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Oil and What it Means For Our Future

October 29, 2012 by

 

For better or worse our economy is tied to oil, so I want to connect a few dots and explain, in part, why that is and what it means for our future.

 

Why Are We So Dependent On Oil?

To fully understand this, we need to go back to oil tycoon John D. Rockefeller.  Mr. Rockefeller believed that oil was a gift from God and he was determined to find as many uses for it as he could.  Don’t get me wrong, he wasn’t completely altruistic.  This also meant higher profits, as he could make money from the parts of oil that many other people were dumping in rivers and lakes as waste.  Some of the uses they discovered were gasoline, tar for paving streets, lubricating oil, Vaseline and paraffin for making candles.  Today oil and oil byproducts are used in those things listed above as well as polyester and other clothing blends, many plastics, many medications, such as cortisone and aspirin, not to mention the gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, which is reported to make up 2/3 of the oil that is used.

 

Harvesting Oil

The theme song from the Beverly Hillbillies said that Jed Clampett was “shooting at some food, missed and up from the ground came bubbling crude”.  While this is an exaggeration as to how easy it used to be, it’s not a huge one.  It used to be very easy to find and drill for oil, and the very first attempts to refine it weren’t much more than boiling it.

The same cannot be said today.  All easy to harvest oil has long been harvested.  Crews have to drill many miles deep into the ocean, which is dangerous and expensive.  There are vast amounts of oil shale, but oil shale is mined in the form of rocks that have solid bituminous materials that are released as petroleum like liquid when the rock is heated in the chemical process known as pyrolysis.  So, while it is there, is it harder to get than traditional oil deposits.

Due to several federal regulations on oil exploration, drilling and refining, the United States will always be a net importer of its oil.

 

Peak Oil

There is some confusion when it comes to this term, so let me define my use of it.  Peak oil is simply the point at which we have reached the peak of oil production.  This could but doesn’t necessarily mean that an oil field that has hit peak oil is running out of oil, just that it has hit the limit in the amount it can produce.

The problem that peak oil causes is that, in the last decade, China, India and some other developing countries, have seen a massive increase in the amount of cars and drivers, which means a massive increase in the amount of gasoline and diesel needed to fuel them.

This is nothing to worry about as long as the largest oil fields and the world’s leading oil producing nations stay out of peak oil.  As you can see from this story, Mexico’s Cantarell oil field, which is the world’s largest oil field, has reached peak oil and is, in fact, declining in production.  This report from CNN says “WikiLeaks cable: Saudi oil estimates may have been exaggerated”

It reports that:

“Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves may have been grossly overestimated and its capacity to continue pumping at current capacity exaggerated, according to a U.S. diplomatic cable sent from the kingdom in 2007.”

 

Alternative Energies

I don’t know of any alternative energy that could replace oil.  Some might say “what about solar?”  Solar panels are very expensive to make, thus very expensive to purchase and install.  I have seen estimates of $20,000 on the front end, which could take 20 years to pay for themselves.  By that time you would need to start replacing panels and would have already been replacing batteries.  There were several solar companies who were given millions of tax payer dollars by our current administration.  We have all seen the reports of them going bankrupt.

Wind just doesn’t produce enough energy for it to be viable to replace oil.  Sure, it could be used in tandem to reduce some of the oil consumption, but I haven’t seen enough information to know if this would be cost effective or be like solar and pay for itself near the end of its life.

Don’t get me wrong, I think we should keep looking for ways to make alternative energy a viable option.  I have to be realistic and say that there is a very good chance that America will be tied to oil to meet our energy needs forever.

 

What Does All OF This Mean For Our Future?

Simply put; higher prices for everything.  Remember all of the items I listed that oil are used in its production?  That was just a fraction of the many items.  I have seen lists with over 6,000 items on them.  Even if you find an item that used zero oil in its production, there was still fuel used to bring the parts together or to ship it to its destination.

Remember that I said an estimated 2/3 of oil is used for fuel, including the fuel you use to drive your vehicle.  It is also used to power the ships, planes, trains and trucks that deliver goods all over the world.

There are places in the world right now where a gallon of gas costs $7.  I don’t know about you, but I don’t have that much in my gas budget.  That means if prices ever get that high here, the money will have to come from something else.

 

What Can We Do?

I think the best thing we can do is pay attention and be thinking about it.  Be conscious of the electronics that are left on 24/7 and how much power they soak up.  As gas prices rise it may be prudent to look for car pool opportunities to get to work.  I know MNDOT has initiatives to put car poolers together and your state may as well.

What other ideas do you have on things we can do to prepare for rising energy costs?

 

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Signs of (worse) Financial Turmoil

October 24, 2012 by

Image by Christian Ferrari
 

 

In the article I wrote last week ”What Does Civil Unrest Look Like and How Can You Stay Safe Near It?” reader JP  commented that:

“Warning signs I’ve thought of would be banks closing doors as soon as several people begin withdrawing all they have. My wife worked for a bank years ago(18 yrs) and I remember her telling me that they had trained them to prepare to shut and lock all doors when told by the manager to do so. Then proceed out the back door if its safe and go home. This situation would begin with multiple people wanting to withdraw all their money from the bank. If you knew someone that worked in a bank they might be able to give you a heads up.”

I replied with an anecdote (that I’ll share below) and both got me thinking about other financial warning signs and that some might come too late to do much good. I am an economic novice, but I am a student of history and have paid enough attention to the economy to feel comfortable pointing out signs to be aware of. I have mentioned many times that the overall economy is in bad shape, so these are not signs to look for general health. Rather these are things to look for which might hint that the economy is going to get even worse.

 

Defaulting Municipalities

I have touched on this in other articles but we are seeing more and more cities and counties filing for bankruptcy, which you can keep track of on the Municipal Bankruptcies Map. If your city or county government can’t pay its bills and defaults, the existing bills might be taken care of, but what about future expenditures? Hard decisions and cuts will need to be made that will affect everyone in the area of a defaulted municipality. Look at Greece, Spain and the United Kingdom for a peek of our future. Austerity measures will be enacted out of necessity either by forward looking municipalities or by whomever takes receivership of defaulted ones. In the countries I listed riots have followed these austerity measures, or even at the suggestion of them, will we see differently?

 

Falling Stock Market

I know very little about the stock market, but if you look at the big hits, there are often many small hits leading up to a nosedive. If the market slides for a few days and there are other signs, such as oil prices or rising unemployment, it might be prudent to move to something safer, at least until things level out.  If someone more familiar with the stock market has other warning signs please post them in the comment section.

 

Failing Banks

If there is talk of large banks failing, keep an eye out and don’t just expect there to be another bailout. In 2008, Iceland’s three largest commercial banks went into receivership over the course of one week and the banks were nationalized. This led to bank runs and nearly led to the entire country going bankrupt. I have seen reports where the value of their currency declined by 50% and their stock market declined by 90%. With the Weiss quarterly bank ratings you can have some idea of how your bank is doing. Granted, it’s only quarterly but it’s better than nothing.

 

Bank Runs

A bank run is a late sign that there is trouble. The anecdote I made to JP Scott’s comment was this:

“Thanks JP. You’re correct that those are both bad signs. A related note on banks; we pulled out a sum of cash a few years ago and were told that most branches only kept $5,000 at any one time. I think since people started using credit and debit cards so frequently, they scaled back the amount they keep on hand. Even if there was a bank run, there is a chance that not many people will get all their money on the spot.”

I say “on the spot” because your account is insured by the FDIC. I can’t say how long it might take to get your funds back. This is a very strong argument for keeping enough cash on hand to pay your bills and to purchase needed items for a couple of weeks to a month. Some banks may keep more cash on hand, but I know from firsthand experience that not all do.

This is also an argument against keeping emergency funds in a safe deposit box. Because banks are still training people the way they did JP’s wife, to lock the door, who knows when you’ll get access to that box?

 

So What Can Be Done When These Things Happen?

If you live in an area in risk of defaulting, you could move. Since this might not be possible or even prudent, planning is about the best you can do. Plan to see some services stop, as I mention in ”What We May See at the End of 2012 that is not related to the Mayans”. Cities, such as Oakland California, have had their Police Departments stop responding to certain crimes. In other cities there are some services that are being stopped or scaled back, such as turning off the street lights.

For the stock market, you can move your money into safer investments. You can also hold cash or invest in precious metals or land.

There isn’t much you can do about failing banks except be aware of them and that they may or may not be bailed out. Either way it causes pain, either now by letting them fail, or to future generations by having to bear the tax burden.  If you bank with a bank that is in trouble, moving your money could speed along their implosion, but not moving it could could slow you getting all of your funds back.

Bank runs, as I mentioned, are not going to ensure you get all of your savings. Most banks also have limits on daily withdraws from ATMs, so don’t plan on getting it all that way either.

I think the best plan is to continue to prepare and work toward having some cash tucked away, and be ready for unemployment and crime to go up as we see these warning signs.

 

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What Does Civil Unrest Look Like and How Can You Stay Safe Near It?

October 17, 2012 by

There have been a lot of rumors of possible or expected civil unrest, which I mentioned in What We May See at the End of 2012 that is not related to the Mayans and such as this recent article from Infowars.com, entitled Will The Election Results Cause Massive Riots To Erupt All Over America?.  This could range from small peaceful protests to large violent riots.  In light of this, I thought I would look back at civil unrest in our history and from around the world to see if there is anything to be learned that could help if we’re ever caught near civil unrest.

 

Mob Mentality

Mob mentality means a group that acts together without a previous plan.  Mob mentality can turn dangerous if there are negative or hostile emotions being expressed.   People often feed off one another’s anger.  If one person acts out in violence, others may quickly follow.  People soon think as a group and continue to feed off each other’s hostility.

There are a certain percentage of people who will act with honor in any situation.  There is another percentage that will act with dishonor and take advantage of people in any situation.  There is yet another group of people who will usually act with honor except when presented with the opportunity to “get away with it”.  In a group of people, all it takes is for a small percentage of dishonorable people to influence the opportunists and chaos ensues.

Examples where this has happened would be riots after sporting events, flash mobs with malicious intent and, to some extent, the riots seen with “Occupy Wall Street”.

If you are facing a group where mob mentality is present, the best advice I can give is to leave the area immediately and call the police from a safe distance.  Flash mobs are a bit different; they are usually made up of teenagers who text their friends and the group quickly builds because so many have been texting.  They often then target a specific location, streaming in and either burglarizing the location or, in some instances, assaulting patrons or employees.

If you are faced with a flash mob, I would advise you to forget what you were there to purchase and leave immediately.  You do not know what the intent is or how long it will remain peaceful.  Retreat to a safe distance that the mob cannot quickly get to and call police.

 

Extended Lawlessness

I can only think of one case of extended lawlessness in recent American history.  That would be the LA riot in 1992, which lasted six days.  There were 53 people killed and over 2,000 injured.  Rioting was sparked in a few other places across the country but the majority of it was seen in LA.

Looting and violence was rampant.  I had a friend in the Navy who lived in South Central LA during the time of the riots.  He said his mother made him and his brother stay lying on the floor almost the entire time because of random gunfire.  I have read reports that police were so overwhelmed in parts of the city that some business owner took up arms and defended their businesses.

Looking abroad, we see similar traits.  When Saddam fell and his police went into hiding, Iraq was full of looting and rioting that carried on for many days.  I remember reading reports from Tunisia and Egypt soon after the civil unrest started there.  There were reports of small convenience stores running out of supplies, cash machines running dry and neighbors banding together to defend their neighborhood from the rioting thugs.

There have been many anti-austerity protests and riots in Spain, Greece, the United Kingdom and some other European countries as well, many of which have turned violent.  I remember reading one report of sporting goods stores in the UK running out of baseball bats because people were buying them for protection (see what happens when you don’t have the right to bear arms?).

If you live near a city that is in the midst of extended lawlessness you will have to make a decision.  Will you be safer if you bug out or batten down?  If you chose to batten down, here are some things to keep in mind; 1.) Make sure you have food and water available so that you do not have to risk leaving the house.  2.) Keep some emergency cash at home just in case you must leave for emergency supplies.

If you have to go out on foot, always be looking for cover and concealment, even if you don’t have to use it in the moment, you should always know where the nearest is at any given moment.  Avoid large groups of people; you have no way of knowing what they may be up to or when mob mentality may take hold.  If you see violence taking place, whether it is a fistfight or any other type of violence, it can shock your system to see it “in real life”.  Do not fixate on it, push it from your mind and focus on putting distance between you and it, you can process what you saw when your safely back home.  Keep your head on a swivel as they say in the Navy and keep looking around you to make sure you know who is nearby.

If you go out near civil unrest in a vehicle, keep as much distance as you can or you may be faced with the decision to use your vehicle to “make some room” to push through a crowd or to simply flee.  That is why I suggest you keep moving.  Do not stop and watch.  Keep as much distance as you can. Almost every time I see footage from riots, there are cars that are vandalized, flipped over or burned.

You cannot depend on 911 or expect the police to show up quickly.  It might be wise to take a page from the neighbors in Egypt who banded together to protect their neighborhood or from the business owners in LA that defended their businesses because the police were so overwhelmed.

 

Restoring Order

Police and possibly the National Guard have the difficult task of stopping the lawlessness and restoring order.  This job could be made increasingly difficult because in many cases the dishonorable people will try to blend in with citizens who’re nearby.  This is used to great effect in Iraq and Afghanistan where someone will shot at our forces and then drop their gun and hide amongst the civilians standing nearby, or will run into a hospital mosque.

As I wrote in What We May See at the End of 2012 that is not related to the Mayans, local law enforcement agencies have trained with the military in urban operations.  Also Local Cops Ready for War With Homeland Security-Funded Military Weapons and the Air National Guard ordering several LRAD (Long Range Acoustical Devices).  The article also states:

“With this order, LRAD systems will be in use by every major force of the Department of Defense,”

There are two dangers.  One is the rioters and the other is the response to them.  You would be well advised to keep your distance from both.

 

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What We May See at the End of 2012 that is not related to the Mayans

October 3, 2012 by

I’m not a prophet but I have gotten pretty good at watching pieces in different areas move and seeing potential threats.  Here are some possible things we might see late this year and early next year.

 

Politics

I see the potential for chaos no matter who gets elected.  If Romney gets elected there is a very good chance that a certain percent of Obama supporters will riot in protest.  What makes me think this?  The new Black Panthers intimidating voters at prior elections, the almost worship from a large chunk of his supporters, such as the “Obama phone” woman, and the racial tension in America which is covered below.

If Obama gets elected, he has nothing to lose and he could be even more progressive, pushing his agenda faster and farther than we have seen thus far.  In his first four years he was able to:  get homosexuals openly enrolled in the military, push through universal healthcare and appoint many radicals as czars that only answer to him, not to congress or the voters.  I could go on but you get the idea.  He did many things that could be argued as unconstitutional and he still had an election to win.  If he wins another term, all bets are off.   I can see him going after DOMA (defense of marriage act) and the second amendment to name just two.

 

Economy

No matter who gets elected we will have an economy that is in very bad shape.  We cannot sustain this debt and keep living like we have been.  I believe taxes will be raised on the middle class and up.  I also think we will see social programs cut, which could lead to the kind of protesting and riots seen in Spain, Greece and in London.

As I mentioned in When the Trucks Stops, due to a lack of truckers and rising diesel prices, among other reasons, the cost to have freight delivered is going up.  This cost will be passed on to the consumer.  Manufacturers have done some sneaky things the last couple of years, like making the package of certain items smaller but keeping the price the same.  They are trying to avoid raising prices, but soon won’t have a choice.

Here is an article from Comcast’s Xfinity finance news called Forbes: The Drought’s Impact on Food Prices.  The article explains why the drought will impact food prices and how it will impact certain foods such as dairy, chicken, beef and others.

There are also several municipalities declaring bankruptcy, from small cities, counties and soon, I believe, states.  California is the biggest and probably the closest to it.  Here is a Municipal Bankruptcies Map.  Watch it grow over the next few months.  People will lose their entire pensions and cuts will be made to services.  As in Oakland, for example, Police will no longer respond to certain crimes..  Others are doing things like turning off the street lights.  This is just the beginning.

 

Crime Rates

When social cutbacks are made, the poorest among us will be effected the most.  There is a certain percentage of that populace who will turn to crime to “supplement” their income.  One of the things I learned in my local police citizens academy is that criminals will often travel some distance to do their thieving, not wanting to “make a mess where they live” so to speak.  So suburbs with a relatively low crime rate could see more crime as social programs are cut.

I read a forum post by Ferfal, a gentleman who lived in Argentina until very recently.  He has two blogs, Surviving in Argentina and his newer blog, The Modern Survivalist.  In this forum post he made the point that the crime rate was so high that he always had multiple weapons on him, a knife, pepper spray, an ASP and a firearm.

The most important thing to always use is The Cooper Color Code and Situational Awareness.  These two can help keep you safe.  If you haven’t read The Gift of Fear yet, please do.  It will show you how to trust your instincts and keep you safe.

 

Race Relations

I have never seen racism.  I believe it exists and until a few years ago, (maybe I was naïve) I would have said it only existed in small pockets but that race relations in America were by and large doing fine.  Then two different things happened.  One, anyone who opposed the President was openly called a racist by many in the media, Hollywood and even some of our elected leaders.  The Tea Party was also called racist as well.

Then Trayvon Martin was shot in Florida.  When George Zimmerman was not arrested, he and his family had death threats made against them.  There were protests against the police, and some small rioting broke out.  There were also stories of white people attacked and told that it was for Trayvon.  Some of these beatings occurred outside of Florida.

Today, if asked, I would say that race relations in America are concerning.  I do believe that if Romney is elected, we will see rioting that makes the LA riots pale in comparison.  If people truly believe that anyone who doesn’t vote for Obama is a racist, losing to Romney will be seen as a far greater injustice than George Zimmerman not being arrested right away.  Any white person may be seen as a surrogate for the white person who did not vote for Obama, just like the white people in other states being beaten for Trayvon.

 

Civil Unrest

I have had several people email me about things they have seen or that they have been told by insiders.  I have also seen several news stories that point to state and federal government getting ready for civil unrest, from various police agencies being allowed to use drones, to police forces training with the military in urban operations.  Multiple federal agencies have purchased large quantities of ammo, totaling over 450 million rounds without any good explanations.  Then, Local Cops Ready for War With Homeland Security-Funded Military Weapons.

There is also the Air National Guard ordering several LRAD (Long Range Acoustical Devices).  The article also states:

“With this order, LRAD systems will be in use by every major force of the Department of Defense,”

These LRAD systems have already been put to use on American citizens, first at the G20 protests, which can be seen in the video.  Watch to see exactly how the LRAD works and how effective it is.

 

 

It was used again; San Diego Sheriff Gore deploys military sonic LRAD area denial weapons at political meetings.

The whispers people are hearing from insiders are vague but point to either something happening or being ready for something big to happen.  I usually take these kinds of whispers with a grain of salt, but like I said, I have had quite a few emails that, while not saying the same thing, have a similar thread.  Combine that with the drones being used to spy on Americans, the hundreds of millions of rounds and the police training in joint urban operations with the military and, well, you don’t have to be a conspiracy theorist to see that something is either going to happen or at least expected to.

 

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