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What is an Overton Window and Why is it Important?

September 26, 2012 by

Some of you Glenn Beck fans might be familiar with what an “Overton Window” is. I’m not talking about his book by the same title (which I own, but haven’t read yet). I’m speaking of the term on which he based his book.

The Overton Window is a theory created by Joseph Overton from the Mackinac Center for Public Policy. Here is a brief explanation from their site:

“Joseph Overton observed that in a given public policy area, such as education, only a relatively narrow range of potential policies will be considered politically acceptable. This “window” of politically acceptable options is primarily defined not by what politicians prefer, but rather by what they believe they can support and still win re-election. In general, then, the window shifts to include different policy options not when ideas change among politicians, but when ideas change in the society that elects them.”

Here is a video from the Glenn Beck’s show when he was still on Fox, with Joseph Lehman, the President of the Mackinac Center for Public Policy. It might help explain it for those who need more visual explanation than written.

As the video explains, you may not know what the term “Overton Window” means, but it has been used on you countless times.

You might be asking “what has this got to do with preparedness?” It has to do with your mindset and awareness; the awareness of when you’re being manipulated. In The Future of America I list some of my concerns with the current administration. I also cover America and prophecy and explain some possibilities that could lie ahead for us. These are things like: an economic collapse resembling that of the one seen in Argentina, which could lead to large social programs being cut, which could then lead to rioting on a scale never seen before in America, which could lead to Martial Law and the suspension of Habeas Corpus. I also believe that after the next large event, there will be a power grab that makes all others thus far pale in comparison. To accomplish some of those things, the “Overton Window” will have to be moved, so that the idea of Marshal Law or many other ugly things are something that the citizenry see as acceptable, if not needed.

The reason knowing this is important is that when you see the “Overton Window” being pushed, it can be a sign that things could be about to hit the fan. Also make sure you you’re not one of those that gets distracted (or manipulated) by what the right hand is doing and does not notice what the left is. Don’t be willing to accept just a little loss of your freedoms, because it’s better than what was initially imposed or proposed.

Here is one example to help paint a picture of how a politician can use this to move the “Overton Window”. Pretend I am the Governor of your state; I decide that we need to turn three of your fairly large freeways into toll roads to bring in more tax revenue. Now, I know that this idea is outside of the “Overton Window”, so instead of putting forth legislation to turn these freeways into toll roads, I do so and say that private companies will operate them, most of which are companies from another country. The citizens are in an uproar; “how dare I let a foreign company put a toll on an American! If anyone is going to charge me a toll it dang sure better be someone from America or someone from my own state!” And the window has now moved. What would have been unacceptable before now seems the more reasonable option. Think this sounds farfetched? Governor Perry tried to do it in Texas in 2010.

Here is another example, one that the President would like to enact very much. In fact, he mentioned it several times in the 2008 campaign. He said we couldn’t just rely on our military to achieve the national security objectives that he has set, so he would like to create a Civilian National Security Force that is just as powerful, just as strong and just as well funded. Here is a video where a reporter interviews Rham Emanuel, when he was the President’s Chief of Staff, who speaks about what this force might look like. The President speaks at the 3minute 42 second mark.

Obviously it hasn’t been enacted, but don’t think that this has been discarded. I think that the “Overton Window” just isn’t in the right place yet. As Rahm Emanuel said, “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste.” What kind of crisis could provoke the “Overton Window” to be moved to where the President could achieve this goal?

In “Terrorism: Lone Wolf and Swarm Attacks”, I explain two types of terrorist attacks that I think we’ll see more and more of as time goes on. They are: a lone gunman or a small team of gunmen attacking soft targets, such as shopping malls, churches and schools, among others. If there was a huge spike in these kinds of attacks, where the police were just overwhelmed, maybe, just maybe, the “Overton Window” could move far enough for the President to get his Civilian National Security Force.

This is completely speculative but I would imagine that this Civilian National Security Force would swear an oath to the President, and not to the Constitution like the military does. Of course the attacks would be horrendous and need to be stopped, and I don’t know about you, but to have a group of people with the Presidents ideals who are just as powerful, just as strong and just as well funded as the military sounds like hitting the fan to me, creating a fundamental change to America that may never be undone.

 

Filed Under: Mind Set, Signs of the Times Tagged With:

When the Trucks Stops

September 24, 2012 by

During the skyrocketing fuel prices of 2008, I remember listening to talk radio and the host commenting on how diesel prices were affecting truckers and trucking companies.  He said something to the effect of “At what point do they just decide they’re not making enough profit to be away from their families and stop driving?”  At the time, diesel was over $5.00 a gallon, which was $1.00 more than unleaded.  That didn’t make sense, as diesel requires less refining than unleaded.

That got me thinking.  I soon realized that nearly everything we purchase is, at some point, transported by semi-trucks.  If they stopped delivering goods, our economy would soon follow and eventually grind to a halt.  I began to do a little digging and found a report that was prepared in 2006 called “When Trucks Stop, America Stops”.

The report details how a stoppage of trucking could greatly impact American life.  It talks about how different industries, such as Healthcare, the Food Industry, Waste Removal and others rely heavily on trucking.

The author mentions how trucking stoppages after 9-11 impacted the economy and how hindering trucking after Hurricane Katrina added lengthy delays.

They also list the timeline below.  I don’t agree with 100% with it, but it’s not far off.

 

“A Timeline Showing the Deterioration of Major Industries Following a Truck Stoppage

 

The first 24 hours

  • Delivery of medical supplies to the affected area will cease
  • Hospitals will run out of basic supplies such as syringes and catheters within hours. Radiopharmaceuticals will deteriorate and become unusable.
  • Service stations will begin to run out of fuel.
  • Manufacturers using just-in-time manufacturing will develop component shortages.
  • U.S. mail and other package delivery will cease.

 

Within one day

  • Food shortages will begin to develop.
  • Automobile fuel availability and delivery will dwindle, leading to skyrocketing prices and long lines at the gas pumps.
  • Without manufacturing components and trucks for product delivery, assembly lines will shut down, putting thousands out of work.

 

Within two to three days

  • Food shortages will escalate, especially in the face of hoarding and consumer panic.
  • Supplies of essentials—such as bottled water, powdered milk, and canned meat—at major retailers will disappear.
  • ATMs will run out of cash and banks will be unable to process transactions.
  • Service stations will completely run out of fuel for autos and trucks.
  • Garbage will start piling up in urban and suburban areas.
  • Container ships will sit idle in ports and rail transport will be disrupted, eventually coming to a standstill.

 

Within a week

  • Automobile travel will cease due to the lack of fuel. Without autos and busses, many people will not be able to get to work, shop for groceries, or access medical care.
  • Hospitals will begin to exhaust oxygen supplies.

 

Within two weeks

  • The nation’s clean water supply will begin to run dry.

 

Within four weeks

  • The nation will exhaust its clean water supply and water will be safe for drinking only after boiling. As a result gastrointestinal illnesses will increase, further taxing an already weakened health care system.”

 

Fast forward to the week of 9-23-2012; I had a conversation with my brother, who is a freight broker for a large grocery distributor in the Midwest.  He told me that things are the worst he has seen them in the last six years that he has been in this position, and that he cannot see it getting better.  Now keep in mind that goes back to before the diesel hike of 2008.

I asked if that was due to diesel prices.  He said “only partly”.  He said the biggest problem right now is finding truckers.  Many truckers are either getting out of the business or retiring and that not many young people are considering it as a profession.  He said it’s a tough job, that you can sometimes be away from home for up to two weeks.  He said when he first started in the position, they posted a want ad looking for truckers in Madison, Wisconsin and they had 50-60 applicants.  He said they posted another want add this year in Madison and had maybe 3-5 applicants.

Another comment he made was about the US Department of Transportation enacting CSA2010, which added more penalties for truckers and trucking companies that don’t follow the regulations.  He said that not all of them were bad, but that they add more restrictions.  They also enacted a points system that might deduct points for not wearing a seat-belt or a light out on the top of the cab.  With enough points, you get audited and possibly fined on top of the cost of the ticket.  There was even one trucking company that, granted had some problems that needing fixing, but the US Department of Transportation went in and shut down for good.  Like my brother said, not all of the changes were bad, but they added more difficulty to an already complex problem.

He also mentioned that companies like the grocery distributer use a philosophy that might sound familiar to you; “just in time inventory”. To keep cost low, they don’t have a lot of inventory sitting around and depend on the trucks bringing them beef to butcher and package as well as all of the other groceries they distribute. If a truck is a day late, it starts to cause problems. If it is two days late, they send people home because they have nothing for them to do. This also goes for deliveries to grocery stores, which use a term similar to the one above that I have used a few times, called “just-in-time” delivery. For those of you unfamiliar, most grocery stores and many other retail stores only keep enough stock on hand for three days.

As an incentive to get drivers to pick up their loads, they have to pay a premium of 20% more per load.  That is going to trickle down folks!  We’re going to end up paying more for everything that is delivered by semi, which, as I mentioned, is MOST things.

I have mentioned in other articles that in many countries where food riots have occurred, it is because they pay between 30-50% of their income for food alone.  When food prices are raised, families have no money to spend on it.   In the USA, we spend roughly 12%-20% on food.  With the added cost of inflation, the increased price of corn, which is used as feed for livestock and many other things, and now the added cost of transportation of the goods, this is a problem that will only get worse.  Do you have room in your budget to pay 30-50% of your income for food?

 

Filed Under: Signs of the Times

Is the Second Amendment in Danger From The UN?

July 9, 2012 by

In the article The Future of America, a commenter posted a link to the UN Conference on Arms Treaty and commented about how the UN wanted to use this treaty to strip American’s of our guns, to which I remarked (tongue in cheek) that the UN states the following and should of course be trusted.:

“The ATT will not:
• Interfere with the domestic arms trade and the way a country regulates civilian possession
• Ban, or prohibit the export of, any type of weapons
• Impair States’ legitimate right to self-defence
• Lower arms regulation standards in countries where these are already at a high level.
An Arms Trade Treaty will aim to create a level playing field for international arms transfers by requiring all States to abide by a set of standards for transfer controls, which will ultimately benefit the safety and security of people everywhere in the world.”
For years I have seen many people on forums claim that the UN is trying to take our guns. Someone always replies that the UN can pass all the treaties they want but that won’t mean anything on US soil. While true, that is unless the Senate ratifies it. It then becomes law.

There was an article published in 2011 from Forbes called U.N. Agreement Should Have All Gun Owners Up In Arms that somehow got put on the Drudge Report. It painted a very concerning picture of how easily this could be done.

The article lists five key things the senate ratifying this treaty would do, they are:

“1. Enact tougher licensing requirements, creating additional bureaucratic red tape for legal firearms ownership.
2. Confiscate and destroy all “unauthorized” civilian firearms (exempting those owned by our government of course).
3. Ban the trade, sale and private ownership of all semi-automatic weapons (any that have magazines even though they still operate in the same one trigger pull – one single “bang” manner as revolvers, a simple fact the ant-gun media never seem to grasp).
4. Create an international gun registry, clearly setting the stage for full-scale gun confiscation.
5. In short, overriding our national sovereignty, and in the process, providing license for the federal government to assert preemptive powers over state regulatory powers guaranteed by the Tenth Amendment in addition to our Second Amendment rights.”

Before the Obama Administration I would have said passing this type of UN treaty stood no chance. But since the Senate used some slimy tactics to shove obamacare through, now I am not so sure. The left hates private gun ownership, and if this President is reelected, I do believe he will make a power grab much bigger than that of his first term as he will have nothing left to lose. I believe that our second amendment would be a part of that power grab.

If this were to pass, I shudder to think what enforcement of this would look like. It could be the catalyst that pushes the country into marshal law and pits Americans against themselves.

 

Filed Under: Signs of the Times Tagged With: , ,

God’s Law vs Man’s Law

July 6, 2012 by

Over the last two days in A Short Prepper Civics Lesson and in The Future of America. I have detailed that the founders stated what our God given rights are. I have also given some possible scenarios where those rights may be restricted, if not completely taken away. How then should a Christian respond?

Romans 13:1
A few years back I decided to read one chapter of the Bible every morning. There were some things I didn’t understand. I spent some time researching them. One of them was Romans 13:1. This verse differs greatly depending on the version of the Bible you have. I’ll post two.

King James:
“Let every soul be subject unto the higher powers. For there is no power but of God: the powers that be are ordained of God.”

Many other versions are similar to this NIV version:

“Everyone must submit himself to the governing authorities, for there is no authority except that which God has established. The authorities that exist have been established by God.”

The reason this was difficult for me is that there have been some truly awful governing authorities throughout history. I questioned whether a loving God would want us to subject ourselves to their authority. Like I said, this didn’t make sense. On a side note, there have been bad governments that have used this verse to keep Christians in line, claiming your God tells you to submit.

I did a bit of digging and thinking and found an article called Spiritual Authority and Romans 13. I don’t agree with everything the author says but he does make it clear that Paul was not telling us to be subject to the worlds authority, that we were to be subjected to our spiritual authorities. That made this verse more clear for me, as some of man’s laws absolutely contradict Gods law.

But let’s say that the verse actually means that we should submit to government. Does that mean even when it goes against God’s law?

God’s law vs. Man’s Law

As a general rule, Christians make excellent citizens. By living as Christ did and loving our neighbor as ourselves, we tend to stay out of trouble. There are many times when man’s laws and God’s laws are the same. For example, many of our current laws are based off of the Ten Commandments. Until recently, they were displayed in many court rooms across the country. In some places they still are.

There are times when there is a law that man uses to infringe upon our Christian liberties, such as taking a cross down from a national park or a city stopping a church from ringing a bell. At times like these I am reminded of Mathew 5:41:

“If someone forces you to go one mile, go with him two miles.”When a Roman soldier would ask a Jew for directions, Jews would often give them the wrong ones. To stop this, a law was created that said when a Roman soldier asked for directions, the Jew had to walk with him for the first mile.

When our Christian Liberties are infringed upon, I think we should still make a stand, do battle in courts, protest or by other means voice opposition. But in the end, I think, since it does not go against Gods law, we must accept it and “walk the second mile”.

But then there are times when man’s law absolutely goes against God’s law. What should we do then? Following are a few examples of when God’s people rebelled against man’s law and followed Gods.

Daniel 1:8
King Nebuchadnezzar has requested among others that, Daniel, Hananiah, Mishael and Azariah be put in his service. They are given wine and fancy foods to eat. Daniel and company refused to defile themselves with the royal foods and asked to be allowed to eat just fruit and vegetables for ten days.

Daniel 3:1
This is the story of King Nebuchadnezzar building a 90 foot tall statue of gold and demanding that everyone bow and worship it. When Shadrach, Meshach and Abednego refused, they were thrown into the furnace.

Daniel 6:7
There is a law passed that anyone who prays to any god or man for the next 30 days would be thrown into the lion’s den. Daniel prays to God and is thrown into the den.

Esther 4:11- 7:3
It is forbidden to enter the kings chambers without invitation. Violation of this is punishable by death. Esther enters and is welcomed by the king. She later asks for her people to be spared and the king grants her request.

Mathew 2:16
King Herod orders the murder of all male children, aged two and younger. Joseph and Mary flee to Egypt.

John9:19
Jesus tells Pontius Pilate he has no authority over Him, essentially saying God is permitting Christ’s death.

The book of Acts
There are many examples of the Sanhedrin telling the 12 apostles to stop preaching about Christ.

These are just some examples I was able to find. Thank you to Mike for the assistance. God’s law should trump man’s law every time. There is almost always a cost; loss of reputation, financial penalty and, for some, even to this day, martyrdom.

When man’s law contradicts Gods law, how you respond is between you and God. I am just here to point out that there is biblical precedence for going against man’s law and government to keep the laws of God.

 
This article is from a series of three, they are:

A Short Prepper Civics Lesson
The Future of America
God’s Law vs Man’s Law

 

Filed Under: Christian World View, Mind Set, Signs of the Times

The Future of America

July 5, 2012 by

 

In this article I want to go over just some of my concerns for America and what it might mean for our future.  I’ll briefly touch on prophecy and what role it will have in America’s future.  But I will also use our recent history as well as the recent history of some other countries to see where we may be heading.

 

Concerns for Our Nation

No country is perfect, nor is any administration.  That being said, the last four years have seen a real infringement on the constitution, damage to the economy and so many other concerns too numerous to name.  The following is a short list.

Passing laws that are thousands of pages long, without reading a single one, Nancy Pelosi actually said the following about the healthcare bill in 2010 “But we have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it, away from the fog of controversy.” 

The DHS allows the TSA to molest people at will.  I have heard of a grandmother in a wheelchair with a colostomy bag, a child in a wheel chair and multiple others that are disgraceful.

The authorization of using drones on Americans to me is stomping on the fourth Amendment, which protects us against unreasonable searches and seizures.  If you have probable cause, get a warrant but, to my understanding, that is not a requirement the FAA put on the multiple police agencies that now have permission to use them.

God has been chased from our schools, courthouses, some national parks and if some had it their way, from every other aspect of our lives.

Our economy is being propped up and I fear the final nails are being added to it.  The fault for this lies with both parties, one used a hammer and nails, the other a pneumatic nail gun.

Heroes coming home from serving their country are labeled as potential terrorists by the DHS.  They retracted it but it was said nonetheless.

We have a President that “forgets” to say God in a few different addresses and has said we are no longer a Christian nation.

They granted power to “shut down” the Internet in times of crisis. This would effectively shred the first Amendment and shut down free speech. 

There have been multiple rumors at potential gun grabs.  This is one of the reasons gun sales skyrocketed after our President was elected and why ammo was so hard to find.  Are they true or not?  I don’t know, but it would not be an easy task.

The constitution was designed with checks and balances, to keep any one side from becoming too powerful.    Our current President has stated numerous times that he’ll “do it with or without” Congress or the Senate.

The federal government has grown vastly under both political parties, to such a behemoth that in some months the unemployment rate dropped because of employees hired by the government, as was the case with the census. 

This President and congress have ignored the Constitution and the Bill of Rights on several occasions; creating Czar’s that are outside the three branches of government and using obscure rules to pass laws that could not pass by a majority vote such as “Obamacare”.

As I said, I could go on and on. 

 

The Future or America (prophetic)

I am not a prophet, but have studied it for years.  I am not saying whether we are in the end times or not but, Christians in America are aware that America is not mentioned in the end times.  While true, many nations are not mentioned the end times.  This doesn’t mean that they don’t exist or are destroyed; it just means that they are not key players. 

I am a patriot.  I have served my country and love it dearly.  I do believe that America will decline from the worlds one super power to a nation of less prominence. This is not something I look forward to.  It is a bitter pill to swallow.  Christ wasn’t looking forward to the cross, yet He said not His will but Gods be done.  I’m not saying we just lie down and let our values continue to be trampled but that we be ready and expect things to change.

Right now we are the worlds’ police force and the chief reason some nations don’t outright attack Israel but instead launch rockets from surrogate organized thugs who’re backed by Iran and other nations.  We’re told in the Bible that the entire world will turn against Israel.  I believe that for God’s will to be done, America must be removed from being the sole super power and Israel’s protector.  That does not mean we Christians turn our hearts from her or stop praying for Israel.

America has been a key player, if not the only super power since World War II, if not earlier.   Whether the end times are upon us or many years from now, America has changed and will continue to change.  I cover some of what I think will happen in our future below.  Some of it will be mild and some could be extreme, but this is part of why we prepare.

I have read that some people claim America will be destroyed.  Others claim that America is actually the New Babylon and others state that America will be broken up into smaller sections.  Like I said, I’m not a prophet, I don’t know what the Lord has planned for America, but His will be done, whether I like it or not.

 

The Future of America (Secular)

Even if the end times are hundreds of years from now, America will change. The following are some of the things I think we may see.  As I mentioned above, I’m not a prophet.  I am getting these ideas from looking at the current and recent past of world and national events.

While we could be attacked by an EMP or an all-out assault from another nation, or a variety of other things that originate from outside our borders, I believe, more likely, we’ll do it to ourselves.

With the colossal amount of debt we have, we will eventually come to the point where we are forced to make cuts.  The military is a popular place for making cuts, especially on the left.  If cuts are made deep enough, we will pull out of the many countries we maintain bases in.  (The argument could be made that this should be done now.)  Once we have less of a presence around the world, cuts could be made to the size of the military.  We would then have little to no presence in foreign countries and a much smaller force at home.  The once “most powerful military the world has ever seen” is now rendered, more or less, irreverent.

Before Argentina’s economy collapsed, it was on par with America’s.  Once it did crash, inflation climbed almost as fast as the crime rate.  It’s been a decade and they are not even close to where they once were.  Japans economy collapsed and they call it “Japan’s lost decade”.  They were still working their way back before being ravaged by earthquake, tsunamis and nuclear reactor problems.

Cuts will also have to be made on public services that many people have come to expect as rights.  When this was done in Spain, the people rioted.  When it was done in Greece, people rioted.  There were also anti-austerity riots in London in 2011.  The point I am making is that when we reach that point where we must make cuts, I think we may see riots worse than we have seen around the world; rioting so bad that people will beg for the government to step in and stop the riots and looting.

 

Martial Law and the Suspension of Habeas Corpus

In a large scale riot, many police departments could soon be pushed to their limit.  Local or federal governments could invoke martial law and suspend habeas corpus.

Before going any further, let me define a few terms.  First is Martial Law; Wikipedia actually has a very good definition of what Martial Law is, so I’ll just copy it here.

“Martial law is the imposition of military rule by military authorities over designated regions on an emergency basis—(usually) only temporary—when the civilian government or civilian authorities fail to function effectively (e.g., maintain order and security, and provide essential services), when there are extensive riots and protests, or when the disobedience of the law becomes widespread. In most cases, military forces are deployed to subdue the crowds, to secure government buildings and key or sensitive locations, and to maintain order.[1] Generally, military personnel replace civil authorities and perform some or all of their functions. In full-scale martial law, the highest-ranking military officer would take over, or be installed, as the military governor or as head of the government, thus removing all power from the previous executive, legislative, and judicial branches of government.”

 

Here is the definition of Habeas Corpus offered by Cornell University Law School:

“Latin for “that you have the body.” A writ of habeas corpus is used to bring a prisoner or other detainee (e.g. institutionalized mental patient) before the court to determine if the person’s imprisonment or detention is lawful. In the US system, federal courts can use the writ of habeas corpus to determine if a state’s detention of a prisoner is valid.  A habeas petition proceeds as a civil action against the State agent (usually a warden) who holds the defendant in custody. It can also be used to examine any extradition processes used, amount of bail, and the jurisdiction of the court.”

The reason these two terms are important is that they could be used to quell any out of control rioting or violence.  Suspension of habeas corpus means you can be detained without going before a court to see if it is merited.  This could be indefinitely in a time of “crisis”.  If martial law is declared, the constitution has effectively been replaced with military rule, thus suspending your God given rights.

Martial law has been declared a few times in American history; Andrew Jackson imposed it in the war of 1812.  In 1892 it was imposed to quell a rebellion from striking miners who blew up a mine.  It was used again in 1914 to stop another miner uprising.  In 1934 the Governor of San Francisco used martial law to stop rioting during a dock worker strike.  Hawaii was placed under martial law in 1941 after the attack from the Japanese on Pearl Harbor. There is some confusion if martial law was declared after Hurricane Katrina.  I have seen reports saying that it was not declared.  However, this statement says that the Mayor of New Orleans did in fact declare it.

There have been people claiming that the government has been just waiting for an opportunity to implement martial law and throw people into FEMA camps.  I’ve never really bought into that line of thought.  Looking back at the freedom the founders wanted for us and how much the last two administrations have grown the federal government as well as how much the current president has sidestep the constitution to get more and more power, I’m convinced that this president, more than any before, would be willing to suspend habeas corpus and install martial law on a semi broad scale.  I say “semi broad” because it would be nearly impossible to enforce martial law in a large area unless all of our troops are pulled home as a result of cuts and closing foreign bases I mentioned earlier.

Even if martial law isn’t declared, there will be financial cuts made and liberties will continue to erode.  That is, unless and until a majority of American’s wake up and demand that we move back to what the Founders had intended for us.  Smaller government, people empowered to pursue life, liberty and happiness on their own, not expecting Uncle Sam to hand it out to them.

 
This article is from a series of three, they are:

A Short Prepper Civics Lesson
The Future of America
God’s Law vs Man’s Law

 

Filed Under: Christian World View, Mind Set, Signs of the Times

The N95 Face Mask

February 14, 2012 by

The N95 Face Mask

Any time there is a pandemic scare, we see people on TV wearing face masks. But do they actually do anything? In most cases, the answer is no because the type of mask that people are wearing is just a dust mask. There is a type of mask that may offer some protection; the N95 particulate respirator. There are several types of N95 particulate respirator masks available. The NIOSH (National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health) approved N95 is one of these.

According to the UCLA Department of Epidemiology:

“The “N95” has a government efficiency rating that means the mask blocks about 95 percent of particles that are 0.3 microns in size or larger.”

Will the N95 be effective against a pandemic?

From the OSHA Fact Sheet on Healthcare Workplaces Classified as Very High or High Exposure Risk for Pandemic Influenza

“Use NIOSH-certified respirators that are N95 or higher. When both fluid protection (e.g., blood splashes) and respiratory protection are needed, use a “surgical N95” respirator that has been certified by NIOSH and cleared by the FDA.”

Did you catch the NIOSH-Certified? The CDC has a Healthcare Workplaces Classified as Very High or High Exposure Risk for Pandemic Influenza,it explains that not all N95 masks are created equal.

“How are NIOSH-Approved Particulate Filtering Respirators Classified?

Your employer may have told you that respiratory protection is needed because of inhalation hazards from airborne particles, which may include infectious agents. NIOSH-approved particulate filtering respirators can be used to protect you from these hazards. It is important for you to understand the classification system of NIOSH-approved respirators that use filters to remove particles from the air that is breathed through them.

There are ten classes of NIOSH-approved particulate filtering respirators available at this time. 95% is the minimal level of filtration approved by NIOSH. The N, R and P designations refer to the filter’s oil resistance as described in the table below.”

Also from OSHA on their effectiveness on Pandemic

“It should be noted that there is limited information on the use of surgical masks for the control of a pandemic in settings where there is no identified source of infection. There is no information on respirator use in such scenarios since modern respirators did not exist during the last pandemic. However, respirators are now routinely used to protect employees against occupational hazards, including biological hazards such as tuberculosis, anthrax, and hantavirus. The effectiveness of surgical masks and respirators has been inferred on the basis of the mode of influenza transmission, particle size, and professional judgment.”
 
 
Making and Keeping the Mask Effective

The most important thing when wearing any type of mask is having a tight seal, this will force the air you breathe through the respirator. The masks are meant for short term use and will break down in time; moisture from sweat will accelerate the breakdown.

Will I Wear a Mask in the Event of a Pandemic?

I agree with Patrick Breysse, an industrial hygienist at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health:

“He keeps N95 masks around the house for doing odd jobs. “If there were an event tomorrow, and I was in my home, I would seal my home as best I could,” he says, “and if I had one of these masks, I would put it on. Because why not?”

If this is a high concern for you, you should look for a gas mask with filters. That will offer much more protection than the N95, but they are not cheap and you will need multiple filters.
 
 
On a related note:

While the regular N95 masks might not be suitable in a pandemic, they still offer better protection from dust and other particles than a regular dust mask. Also, an N95 will keep your glasses from fogging up.

You can purchase a 3M 8511 NIOSH Particulate N95 Respirator with Valve, 10-Pack for just under $17.00.

 
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How a True Pandemic May Look

February 13, 2012 by

A pandemic is one of the “big” scenarios that concerns me the most. The reasons for my concern are: 1) We have had multiple pandemics throughout world history, 2) Modern ease of travel can quickly spread a pandemic and, 3) The super bugs that modern antibiotics are ineffective against. Because of the last two concerns, if we have a true pandemic, things could get ugly very quickly.

I’m sure you remember the Swine Flu or H1N1 pandemic. In the 07/21/09 issue of the German Weekly, Der Spiegel, there was an Interview with Epidemiologist Tom Jefferson

“SPIEGEL: Do you think the WHO declared a pandemic prematurely?

Jefferson: Don’t you think there’s something noteworthy about the fact that the WHO has changed its definition of pandemic? The old definition was a new virus, which went around quickly, for which you didn’t have immunity, and which created a high morbidity and mortality rate. Now the last two have been dropped, and that’s how swine flu has been categorized as a pandemic. “
The morbidity rate is the amount of the population that has an illness or disease. The mortality rate is the amount of people killed by an illness or disease.”

From LiveScience.com
“There are currently 28,774 cases in 74 countries, according to the latest WHO statistics. (There are 13,217 cases in the United States, with 27 deaths.)

Declaring a pandemic is a big official deal, so big that this is the first global flu epidemic in 41 years (the last one was the “Hong Kong flu” which killed 1 million people). A pandemic is something like a global version of an epidemic, which is a disease outbreak in a specific community or region or population. “

So if H1N1 wasn’t a pandemic, what does one look like? As mentioned, the “Hong Kong flu” killed 1 million people:

The 1968-1969 pandemic The Hong Kong Flu
“In comparison to other pandemics, the Hong Kong flu yielded a low death rate, with a case-fatality ratio below 0.5% making it a category 2 disease on the Pandemic Severity Index. The pandemic infected an estimated 500,000 Hong Kong residents, 15% of the population.[4] In the United States, approximately 33,800 people died.”

While there was a tragic loss of life, this was only a class 2 pandemic, and the loss of life was mostly seen in Hong Kong.

Pandemic of 1918-1919
“The 1918 pandemic killed an estimated 20-50 million people worldwide, including 675,000 in the United States. The pandemic’s most striking feature was its unusually high death rate among otherwise healthy people aged 15-34. During normal seasonal flu outbreaks, severe complications and death are most common among the elderly and young children.“
 
 
Superbugs

I like About.com ‘s definition of superbug:

“Definition: A strain of bacteria that is resistant to one or more antibiotic(s) that would normally treat the bacteria”

It goes on to explain how superbugs are caused and why they are a problem:

“The increasing emergence of superbugs is a direct consequence of antibiotic misuse. Misuse of an antibiotic results in incomplete elimination of bacterial infections, which, in turn, leads to survival of strains of bacteria that have evolved to resist that antibiotic. Superbugs can be dangerous because of the limited number of treatment options available. Among some of the more common superbugs are methicillin-resistant Staph aureus (MRSA) and multiple-drug or extensively drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB and XDR-TB).”

More on antibiotic misuse from the Mayo Clinic:“If antibiotics are used too often for things they can’t treat — like colds, flu or other viral infections — they become less effective against the bacteria they’re intended to treat. Not taking antibiotics exactly as prescribed also leads to problems. For example, if you take an antibiotic for only a few days — instead of the full course — the antibiotic may wipe out some but not all of the bacteria. The surviving bacteria become more resistant and can be spread to other people.”
 
 
What Can We Expect in a True Pandemic?

If there was an illness that had both high morbidity and mortality rate, say morbidity of H1N1 and the mortality rate of SARS (which had a mortality rate of 9.6%), I believe we would quickly see a domino effect. Schools would close as soon as there was one infected student reported (this happened in multiple schools with H1N1). It is also possible that truckers would not want to risk catching the new bug and decide to stay at home, instead of delivering food and other supplies to infected areas.

Think about your company and every company you interact with having 30% of the workforce sick and not at work. That doesn’t take into consideration people that must take off work to help a sick family member or those that would call in sick out of fear. Now maybe you can see the blow this would have on the economy.

It is possible that quarantines would be installed to try and keep the morbidity rate as low as possible. Which could make it interesting as this study cited by the Los Angeles Times states that First-responders are needed in a pandemic, but not all may want to work, a study finds.

“When asked about willingness to work various shifts, 35% said they wouldn’t be willing to work any shift. And 12% of participants said they’d rather quit or retire early than report for duty.”
 
 
What Can We Do?

We can be ready to take care of ourselves and not be a drain on a system that could very well be taxed to the limits. By taking care of ourselves I mean things like having a minimum of 90 days food stored, having over-the-counter medication stored to give some comfort and aid to any family member that might become sick.

We can also be ready to self-quarantine our families if we see the morbidity and mortality numbers begin to climb. If you cannot self-quarantine, then wash your hands often, use the anti-germ gel as well and touch your face as little as possible. Try to avoid contact with others.

If there is a true pandemic there will be a lot of fear in the populace. People are dangerous when they’re afraid, so even if there is a quarantine there very well could be those willing to break curfew to look for food or other supplies. We should also be ready to protect our family from the grasshoppers.

Here is a little light reading, it is some of the articles I have read in research of pandemic and superbugs.

PandemicFlu.gov

Hong Kong Keeps Ban on Some Chinese Poultry Imports After Flu Link Found

Drug-Resistant ‘Super Bug’ Hits LA County Hospitals, Nursing Homes

U.N. agency warns of possible bird flu resurgence

Yahoo News: Disfiguring tropical disease surges.

Scientists Find New Superbug Spreading From India, there are almost no drugs to treat it.

Also a new flu virus found in India, believed to come from Australia.

Yet a third virus found: “New Unknown Virus Killed 35 in India and 30 in Ukraine”.
 

 
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Our Endangered Electrical Infrastructure

January 30, 2012 by

Our Endangered Electrical Infrastructure

Every year hundreds of thousands (sometimes millions) of people go without power for a variety of reasons. It can sometimes be from storm damage, as was the case in 2003, during the worst blackout in U.S. history; power lines were taken down by trees, which led to a cascading failure. This left an estimated 55 million people without power, as well as an estimated 6 billion dollar business loss. It can also be caused from routine operation of changing out a piece of faulty equipment, which led to a blackout, leaving 7 million people in the dark.

Why is there such a propensity for failure? There are multiple reasons. Much of our electric grid is fifty years old or older, running on parts with a thirty to thirty five year life expectancy. There are power plants that cost millions of dollars to build and no one inside America even builds them anymore. Another reason is, there are interlinked dependencies that no one seems to understand. In both of the blackouts that I linked above, there was a failure that shouldn’t have bled into others, but did.

Another reason is our insatiable appetite for electricity and the things it powers. Don’t get me wrong, I’m far from an eco-hippie, but there is a ton of juice being used to power “fluff”, even when it is not on. It seems like every year there are rolling brownouts due to supply not meeting demand.

The article U.S. Electric Grid Is Reaching the End Game goes into great detail on the problems of our failing infrastructure. If you’re interested in more information, it is worth the read.
 
 
What are the dangers?

As I mentioned above, weather is a cause; in fact it’s probably the biggest cause. I wrote an article on another threat called EMP’s, Solar Flares and CME’s. I explain what these events are and how much of a danger I think they actually are. There are always things getting old and breaking down, as commented on in Recent Blackout Highlights Nation’s Aging Electricity Grid and in Aging Gas Pipes at Risk of Erupting Nationwide.

Another threat I think is very real is from other countries hacking into our grid. China and Russia hack into US power grid This doesn’t have to do with our electrical grid, but most recently Foreign hackers targeted U.S. water plant in apparent malicious cyber attack.
 
 
What Can We Do?

We can take responsibility for what we use and how much we use it. I’m not saying unplug everything that isn’t in use, though for some items that might not be a bad idea. Turning off lights that aren’t in use, or turning the PC off if it’s not going to be used for an extended period can’t hurt. Don’t tell me about the hibernate feature; I’m pretty sure the devil invented that right after software user agreements and hold music.

We can also provide some of our own electricity at whatever level we can afford. If that’s a full scale solar panel system, wind turbine or a portable generator to provide off grid electricity, so be it. I can’t afford to do a full scale solar panel system, but I have thought about getting a small panel and battery to learn the ropes and scale up slowly.

If you have any other ideas that we can do, please post them in the comments.

 
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Filed Under: Energy/Power, Signs of the Times

Terrorism: Lone Wolf and Swarm Attacks

July 20, 2011 by

There are two types of terrorist attacks that are very effective and very difficult to stop. The first is the only successful terrorist attack on American soil since 9-11; the lone wolf attack. The second type; the swarm attack. We have not yet seen a swarm attack in America but it was used in India with great effect.
 
 
Lone Wolf

There have been some elaborate attempts, such as the infamous “Underwear Bomber” and the ”Times Square Bomber” that have failed.

As I mentioned, it is my opinion the only terrorist attacks that have been successful in America since 9-11-01 have been lone wolf attacks. The reason these attacks are successful is that the terrorist can act alone with little to no support network. A lone wolf attack involves a firearm and as much ammo as they cam carry, possibly some crude explosives and a location to begin the attack, no synchronized coordination, no elaborate plan, just an evil and hate-filled heart, shooting anyone and everyone in range.
 
 
Is The Threat Real?

Fox News wrote an article called “Alleged Texas Jihad Plot Underscores Threat of Lone Wolf Terrorists Inside U.S”, that covers the Saudi National who planned to bomb a series of targets. He wasn’t discovered by police or the FBI but by a chemical supplier who was suspicious about the amount of a certain chemical he ordered and they tipped off the authorities. The article goes on to say:

“The lone wolf scenario is seen by many counterterrorism officials as one of the most concerning. The larger the plot, the more individuals who are involved, the more likely it is to find a lead and unravel the operation.

If a suspect is not e-mailing or phoning anyone to develop the plot, it can be virtually impossible to thwart. In the Texas case, it is alleged that the suspect slipped up as he was gathering the remaining components to make IEDs”

An article from ABC News explains that American-born al Qaeda spokesman Adam Gadahn has said in the newest al Qaeda video, that American Muslims Should Buy Guns, Start Shooting People.

“Do Not Rely on Others, Take the Task Upon Yourself”, produced by al Qaeda’s media arm, as Sahab, the tape mixes Gadahn’s new message with clips from old videos of Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri and other al Qaeda leaders praising one-man attacks. They call on jihadis in the West to carry out lone wolf operations.”

I mentioned that there have been successful lone wolf attacks. The shooting at an Arkansas recruiting center, where one soldier was murdered and another wounded is one successful attack. The attack at Fort Hood is another successful attack. Twelve people were murdered and thirty-one wounded. These types of attacks are not just limited to jihadis. The shooting in Arizona by Jared Loughner proves this.
 
 
Swarm Attacks

A swarm attack consists of multiple small groups of just a few men attacking several targets at once. This type of attack was used in Mumbai, India in November of 2008. Five two-man teams were able to murder 179 people over the course of two days.

The Coming Swarm is an article by The New York Times that gives a very good explanation of what a swarm is and how this tactic has been used around the world. It hints that America should get ready for the coming swarm.

“While the specifics of the federal counterterrorism strategy are classified, what is in the public record indicates that the plan contemplates having to deal with as many as three sites being simultaneously hit and using “overwhelming force” against the terrorists, which probably means mustering as many as 3,000 ground troops to the site. If that’s an accurate picture, it doesn’t bode well. We would most likely have far too few such elite units for dealing with a large number of small terrorist teams carrying out simultaneous attacks across a region or even a single city.

Nightmare possibilities include synchronized assaults on several shopping malls, high-rise office buildings or other places that have lots of people and relatively few exits. Another option would be to set loose half a dozen two-man sniper teams in some metropolitan area — you only have to recall the havoc caused by the Washington sniper in 2002 to imagine how huge a panic a slightly larger version of that form of terrorism would cause.”
 
 
Is The Threat Real?

As I mentioned, terrorists like grand events and a swarm attack on multiple targets either in one city or multiple cities is defiantly grand. I also mentioned that the reason lone wolf attacks are so effective is that there aren’t many people involved in carrying the attack out and there isn’t a large support network for those who carry it out. I would say we are more likely to see more lone wolf attacks but a swarm attack is still a possibility. I can also see a lone wolf attack encouraging more lone wolf attacks and it turning into an unorganized swarm attack.
 
 
What can we do?

The things that you can do are the same in both of these, mainly because you likely won’t know if it was a swarm or lone wolf until afterward. That being said, what can you do? The most important thing you can do is practice situational awareness. When you are in public, be aware of what is going on around you. You should also be aware of the nearest exit.
 
 
Cover and Concealment

Cover and concealment are two important things to keep in mind. Concealment is having something big enough to hide behind and cover is something that you can hide behind that will stop bullets. As an example, the walls of most homes are built with sheetrock and studs. While you can hide behind this wall, it’s not going to stop a bullet. If you have a fireplace made of bricks or stones, this is sufficient cover to stop a bullet.
 
 
Fight or Flight

I think everyone knows about the fight or flight instinct. I don’t think there is anything wrong with either response. I have mentioned this article about Sheep, Wolves and Sheepdogs. The article is worth reading. It explains that most people are sheep and do not have the capacity for violence, except under extreme duress. Wolves have a capacity for violence and prey on the sheep. Sheepdogs also have a capacity for violence, but love and protect the sheep, keeping them safe from the wolves.

If you are a sheep, find cover if possible but concealment at the least, get to the nearest exit and call 911. If you are a sheepdog, you have a judgment call to make. You don’t have to use violence just because you have the capacity for it. However, if you decide to show the wolf your fangs (and have your CCW), keep in mind that you don’t know how many shooters there are. Find some cover and make a plan. Also keep in mind that the police are on the way. They have no real way to know that you’re on their side and not one of the wolves.

I have thought about what I might do in this situation. I have to say that the options are not great. A call to 911 can tell them that you have your CCW and are engaging the threat. Be sure they know what you’re wearing. Another option is to have someone else call police and let them know, or inform them as they come in.

There is also a company that has developed a Don’t Shoot Me Sash. I like this idea and have thought of purchasing one but there is nothing keeping the wolves from wearing one. If you see police, drop your gun; do NOT try to explain that you’re on their side.

The last thing I want to mention is something I brought up in the article about Rising church crime. I have held the belief since shortly after 9-11 that terrorists saw how churches swelled after 9-11. Should there be another attack, churches would be a second attack. American-born al Qaeda spokesperson told jihadis living in America:

“to do major damage to the enemies of Islam, waging war on their religion, sacred places, and things, and brethren,” says Gadahn. “This is a golden opportunity and a blessing.”

Keep alert at worship; they see it as a potential target.

 
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Terrorism: Beslan Style Attack At Our Schools

July 14, 2011 by

Beslan – Terrorist attack at a Beslan School, North Ossetia-Alania (Russia): Could this happen in America (or anywhere else again)?

On September 1, 2004, Chechen Islamic terrorists stormed a school taking over 1,100 people hostage for three days. The terrorists were brutal, killing men and boys old enough to resist their attempts. Hostages were forced to stay in a sweltering hot auditorium with little to no food or water. Russian forces eventually stormed the school. In the end there were over 385 dead, including 31 dead terrorists. Wikipedia has a very detailed write up called Beslan school hostage crisis.

Is this a real threat?

I’ll break this down into two questions. First, could they? Second, will they? The answer to “could they?” is an absolute yes and quite easily at most schools. “Will they?” is a much harder question to answer. Through this article I build the case that this is something that terrorists have researched, drilled and done in Beslan. Granted much of the information is a few years old, I believe it is still relevant.

There are security experts who believe terrorists are preparing to do the same thing in America. Paul Marshall from The National Review Online states that:

“This is not the only time that al Qaeda has announced a target of four million. In June 2002, its spokesman, Suleiman Abu Gheith, published an article on the alneda website that claimed: “We have the right to kill four million Americans — 2 million of them children — and to exile twice as many and wound and cripple hundreds of thousands.”

I don’t want to go down the rabbit hole too far, but there is a segment of Islam that believes they can bring about the return of the Mahdi, the 12th Imam. They believe that if they spread chaos that the Hidden Imam will emerge. The return of The Hidden Imam will “bring justice and peace to the world by establishing Islam throughout the world.”

Do you remember the backlash or fear of backlash after 9-11? The late night sitcoms joked about Arabs wearing United States Flag themes clothes to keep from getting a beat down. If they were to attack even a couple of schools, I would imagine that there would be much more backlash then after 9-11.

When Glenn Beck was still at CNN he did a series of shows about “The Perfect Day”. He goes over what the terrorists are planning to do in America and did do at Beslan. I wasn’t able to find the full-length videos however Youtube has several clips from the series that are worth watching.  Here is the link to the Perfect Day Series.

 

Every key point from the entire series is covered by the National Terror Alert Response Center in the article The Terrorist Threat To Our Schools.

Much of this information is a little dated, but keep in mind that there was eight years in between the first and second bombing of the world trade centers. Out of any other attack, this one would hurt the most; it would cause more fear and anger then any other.

What Can We Do?

I think the most important thing we can do is be informed, not just about the threat, but about our children’s schools security plans; find out if they have one and what it entails if you can. They might not cover what the response will be, but you can find out from your child what they are expected to do or find out from the school what the children are supposed to do. We can talk to them about the schools security plan or we develop a security plan for our kids and talk to them about it.

Lock Down

One security practice that is fairly common is “lock-down”. A quick example of a lock-down: A lock-down announcement is made. Teachers then lock the door and the entire class is moved away from any windows or doors. Everyone keeps very silent. There is often a color-coded piece of paper slid under the door. The colors could mean everything from “we’re safe”, “we have wounded inside” to “call police”. In my opinion, these pieces of paper scream for attention from intruders. If I was Joe Dirtbag and I decided to bring a gun to school and kill some children, it doesn’t matter if I know what the color means. The fact that it is lying outside of a door tells me that either someone was in there, or still is. All it takes to find out is one good kick to the door.

Maybe I am missing something but I just don’t understand the lock-down being used in today’s world. Beslan, Columbine, Virgina Tech and so many other school shootings should be to school safety what 9-11 was to airport security. Before 9-11 you could carry a box cutter on a plane and almost everyone believed that if there was a hijacking, you just submit to the hijackers and the plane lands safely. Today you need an act of Congress to get 90-year-old woman in a wheel chair through the airport security checkpoint and people are ready to tackle anyone that stands up when the seat-belt light is still on.

Beslan, Columbine, Virgina Tech and other school shootings should show us that attackers, whether Islamic terrorists or a fellow student, people who bring a gun to school mean to get as high a body count as they can.

When we saw the episode of Glenn Beck on Beslan, my oldest stepson was in middle school. The school was built in the 1950’s and security was not a concern. My wife and I found out what the school had in place for its security policy. We then talked it over and came up with a plan for our kids, should there be a shooting of any kind at their school.

Our kids had heard about school shootings, so the topic wasn’t completely foreign. We wanted them prepared ahead of time so that they didn’t have to come up with a plan when “it’s hit the fan”, when adrenaline and fear have their minds racing. We brought it to them in a way that didn’t scare them and gave them a plan “just in case”.
 
 
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