I wrote most of this article before the rallies and protest that took place this week in Wisconsin. While the protests have been fairly peaceful so far, let’s pray they stay that way. I’ll cover some things that will help mitigate their impact if in fact things do take a turn for the worse.
There are quite a few things we can learn from the coup d’etat in Tunisia and Egypt. Before I cover the lessons, let me cover some of the event’s that took place. I am not an expert on Tunisia or Egypt, but have done a fair bit of reading on them as many have recently. These are two modern cultures, Egypt being the most populated African country and Tunisia having Africa’s largest economy. The research I did showed that both have populations of 20-40% that use facebook and other social media. In fact facebook, Twitter and You Tube were used extensively to coordinate the three R’s of a coup, Rallies, Riots and Revolution. Here are a couple of articles that show how social media was used. Tunisia: The Facebook Revolution and Egyptian government fears a Facebook revolution.
Citizens of both countries were unhappy with their government, but the spark that started the rallies and riots in Tunisia came in mid-December 2010 when a man who had his vegetable and fruit cart confiscated because he didn’t have a permit for it, lit himself on fire in protest. This led to protests, rallies and soon riots, ending in revolution. The story in Egypt is much the same, but the government exerted a bit more force and clamped down a bit more on media.
According to the Telegraph, “Egypt and Tunisia usher in the new era of global food revolutions”. “The surge in global food prices since the summer – since Ben Bernanke signaled a fresh dollar blitz, as it happens – is not the underlying cause of Arab revolt, any more than bad harvests in 1788 were the cause of the French Revolution. Yet they are the trigger, and have set off a vicious circle”
To understand this, you need to realize that in America we spend roughly 10-13% on food, in many other countries they spend 30%-50%, so when prices are increased they often do not have the money to afford paying for food.
The police stepped aside, some of whom joined protesters, leaving the security of neighborhoods to the people who lived there. These people defended their property, places of business and loved ones with sticks, knives and clubs.
In an attempt to control the masses and limit their communication, Egypt Shows How Easily Internet Can Be Silenced, I’m a fairly tech savvy guy. I would not have guessed it was as easy as they showed it to be. The Egyptian government also shut down Al Jazeera bureau..
As the rallies and riots continued, “Food staples started to run out in Egypt”, “Egyptians stock up on food, water as protests rage”. The banks were closed and with the Internet down, many businesses were forced to be “cash only”. “Egyptians Line Up for Cash as Banks Open, Currency Plummets to 2005 Low”
Lessons To Learn
The first question we need to ask is “could it happen here in America?” I don’t think we will ever see another violent revolution, at least I pray not. I think that there are a few triggers that could set any society up for civil unrest and riots.
What are these triggers? An increasingly high unemployment rate, a populace that is dissatisfied with our government, high oil prices and inflation levels that force a larger percent of income to provide food, or food shortages, as the end result is the same, people either eat less or not at all.
Unemployment
Our current level of unemployment is 9.8%. This does not factor in those under employed or those who have stopped looking for employment. The numbers get worse when you look at the percentage of unemployed youth, who will soon be out of school for the summer and looking for non-existent jobs.
Political satisfaction
I’m going to try to keep my writings non-political (remember I said “try”). We just had a pretty big upset in this last election. But I’m not kidding myself; I don’t think that just because the republicans took the majority that we’re going to see a huge change. It seems to me that those we’ve elected to lead us don’t often have our best interest in mind.
Obama ‘Internet kill switch’ plan approved by US Senate panel. “The bill also would allow the US president to take emergency actions to protect critical parts of the Internet, including ordering owners of critical infrastructure to implement emergency response plans, during a cyber-emergency. The president would need congressional approval to extend a national cyber-emergency beyond 120 days under an amendment to the legislation approved by the committee.” My question is, who gets to decide what a cyber-emergency is? Another concern is that the President would have the power to shut down segments or the entire Internet for 120 days. This would destroy many companies, the company I work for being one of them.
Oil prices
Oil prices are on the rise again, but here are a couple of things to keep in mind. Much like food, Americans are blessed with much lower gas prices than much of the world. In most major European countries they pay around $6.00 a gallon. Our economy is driven by cheap oil and we’re almost to $100 a barrel now. The last time we got this high was in 2008. I paid $4.10 a gallon at its highest back then. You also have to take into account that in one form or another, oil is used in every single thing you use, even if it was the gas used to transport it.
Food
As I mentioned above, we in America have been blessed with low food prices so far, but will they stay that way? Here is a secret study from Wal-Mart from a few months ago that showed increasing inflation then. Just yesterday my wife was telling me that the pizza rolls that my boys like have gone up over a dollar in price in the past 3 months. Here is another story called “The Invisible Food Crisis”. “Food prices are going up everywhere. Will they start rising in America, too?” One more that says “Higher Corn Prices Causing Rising Grocery Prices”. Another story that states Explosive’ Food Prices the Biggest Risk. How much wiggle room do you have in your budget? How much wiggle room do you think the 43 Million Who Use Food Stamps have?
I think the chances of the United States ever seeing a coup or another violent revolution are slim. As far as rallies and protests, we had multiple this week in Wisconsin and other states and they were all peaceful. However just last fall there were 30,000 people that showed up “seeking applications for government-subsidized housing” and it turned into a riot, with 62 injured. We also have multiple riots for other reasons, such as sporting events.
Mob Mentality
Have you heard the term “Mob Mentality”? It means a group that acts together without a previous plan. Let’s take the same protests in Wisconsin or other states and add in rising grocery or gas prices. Now the level of angst and frustration is even higher. People begin to feed off of each other’s emotions. If one person acts out then some in the group might also.
Here are four suggestions for mitigation if something similar happens here;
1. Avoid groups of people that are protesting. The individual people that are protesting might be good people, but remember the mob mentality. You can be a target just by not being a part of the group.
2. Have food stored. I have written extensively on food storage, found in the Preparedness section. There are a few reasons related to the coup’s that make food storage a great idea; increasing prices, food shortages and not needing to go out and get food if there is civil unrest. Even if none of these things happen, imagine the peace of mind that comes from knowing you can feed your family for an extended length of time.
3. Have some cash on hand. If there is a loss of power, ATM’s don’t work and most store cash registers won’t work, nor will credit card machines. Some places might take checks but many don’t when things are “normal”, so I wouldn’t count on it.
4. Know your community. I don’t expect that you will have to join together to chase off any rioters but knowing who you live near is always a good idea.
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